Copart (Copart) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Copart Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Copart (Copart) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Copart Inc (NAS:CPRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CPRT:Mexico CO6:Germany CO6:Germany C1PR34:Brazil

Address

14185 Dallas Parkway, Suite 300, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.copart.com

Based in Dallas, Copart operates an online salvage vehicle auction with operations in 11 countries across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, facilitating over 3.5 million transactions annually. The company utilizes its virtual bidding platform, VB3, to connect vehicle sellers with over 750,000 registered buyers around the world. Buyers primarily consist of vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, individuals and used vehicle retailers. About 80% of Copart's vehicle volume is supplied by auto insurance companies holding vehicles deemed a total loss. Copart also offers services such as vehicle transportation, storage, title transfer, and salvage value estimation. The company primarily operates on a consignment basis and collects fees based on the vehicle's final selling price.

Executives

Daniel J Englander	director	C/O AMERICA'S CARMART, 802 SOUTHEAST PLAZA AVE #200, BENTONVILLE AR 72712
Willis J Johnson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board
Stephen Fisher	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2065 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE X1 95125
Matt Blunt	director	C/O COPART, INC., 4665 BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, FAIRFIELD CA 94534
A Jayson Adair	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Steven D Cohan	director
James E Meeks	director
Thomas N Tryforos	director	323 RAILROAD AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Leah C Stearns	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CBRE, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1250, DALLAS TX 75201
Diane M Morefield	director	200 W. MADISON STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606
Carl Sparks	director	4315 NORTHAVEN ROAD, DALLAS TX 75229
Jeffrey Liaw	officer: Chief Financial Officer	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Cherylyn Harley Lebon	director	C/O COPART, INC., 14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75254
John F North	officer: Chief Financial Officer	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
William E Franklin	officer: Executive Vice President	3399 PEACHTREE RD NE STE 700, ATLANTA GA 30326