CSG Systems International (CSG Systems International) Predictability Rank

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What is CSG Systems International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CSG Systems International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CSG Systems International (CSG Systems International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CSG Systems International Inc (NAS:CSGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CSN:Germany

Address

169 Inverness Dr W, Suite 300, Englewood, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.csgi.com

CSG Systems International Inc is a purpose-driven, SaaS platform company that enables companies in a wide variety of industry verticals to tackle the growing complexity of business in the digital age. The company's cloud-first architecture and customer-centric approach empower companies to deliver unforgettable experiences for B2B (business-to-business), B2C (business-to-consumer), and B2B2X (business-to-business-to-consumer) customers, making it easier for people and businesses to connect to, use and pay for the services the company offers. The company operates in one segment i.e. Solutions and Services. Geographically, the company generates revenue from Americas (principally the U.S.).

Executives

Lori Szwanek	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	2803 N 161ST AVENUE, OMAHA NE 68116
Kenneth M Kennedy	officer: EVP Product Development	33 W MONROE ST, SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60603
Eric Carrasquilla	officer: EVP Pres. Customer Experience	1600 SEAPORT BLVD., SUITE 400, PACIFIC SHORES CENTER - BUILDING 6, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Rachel A. Barger	director	751 SHERWOOD RD NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Chad Dunavant	officer: EVP Product & Strategy Officer	6175 S WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Alfred George Binford	officer: President, Customer Engagement	6175 S WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Rasmani Bhattacharya	officer: SVP, General Counsel	6175 S. WILLOW DR 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
David Neil Schaaf	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	6175 SOUTH WILLOW DRIVE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Hai Tran	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O SOC TELEMED, INC., 1768 BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190
Gregory A Conley	director	9197 S. PEORIA ST., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Elizabeth A Bauer	officer: EVP, CMO & CCO	6175 SOUTH WILLOW DRIVE, 10TH FLOOR, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Rolland B Johns	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	9555 MAROON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Tseli Lily Yang	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Silvio Tavares	director	20 TIPTOE LANE, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Bret C Griess	officer: EVP, Operations	9555 MAROON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112