Meta Platforms (Meta Platforms) Predictability Rank

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What is Meta Platforms Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Meta Platforms Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Meta Platforms (Meta Platforms) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Meta Platforms Inc (NAS:META) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

META:Peru META:Mexico FB:Italy FB2Ad:UK 0QZI:UK FB2A:Germany FB20:Germany FB2A:Germany FB2A:Germany FB2A:Germany METACL:Chile META:Canada M1TA34:Brazil META:Austria

Address

1601 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025

Website

https://www.facebook.com

Meta is the world's largest online social network, with 3.8 billion family of apps monthly active users. Users engage with each other in different ways, exchanging messages and sharing news events, photos, and videos. The firm's ecosystem consists mainly of the Facebook app, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and many features surrounding these products. Users can access Facebook on mobile devices and desktops. Advertising revenue represents more than 90% of the firm's total revenue, with more than 45% coming from the U.S. and Canada and over 20% from Europe.

Executives

Mark Zuckerberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB and CEO	C/O META PLATFORMS, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jennifer Newstead	officer: VP and General Counsel	C/O FACEBOOK, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Christopher K Cox	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O FACEBOOK, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Javier Olivan	officer: Chief Operating Officer	62 RIDGE VIEW DRIVE, ATHERTON X1 94027
Nicholas Clegg	officer: President, Global Affairs	C/O META PLATFORMS INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andrew Bosworth	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O META PLATFORMS INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Susan J Li	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Aaron Anderson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC., 2211 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Taylor Susan J.s.	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O LINKEDIN CORPORATION, 2029 STIERLIN COURT, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Marne L. Levine	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O CHEGG, INC., 3990 FREEDOM CIRCLE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
David M. Wehner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FACEBOOK, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Tony Xu	director	C/O DOORDASH, INC., 303 2ND STREET, SOUTH TOWER, 8TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
David B. Fischer	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O FACEBOOK, INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Michael Todd Schroepfer	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O FACEBOOK INC., 1601 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Marc L Andreessen	director	C/O ARNOLD & PORTER LLP, 3 EMBARCADERO CENTER 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111