Illumina (Illumina) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Illumina Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Illumina (Illumina) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Illumina Inc (NAS:ILMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ILMN:Mexico 1ILMN:Italy ILU:Germany ILU:Germany ILU:Germany ILMN:Austria

Address

5200 Illumina Way, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122

Website

https://www.illumina.com

Illumina provides tools and services to analyze genetic material with life science and clinical lab applications. The company generates about 90% of its revenue from sequencing instruments, consumables, and services. Illumina's high-throughput technology enables whole genome sequencing in humans and other large organisms. Its lower throughput tools enable applications that require smaller data outputs, such as viral and cancer tumor screening. Illumina also sells microarrays (about 10% of sales) that enable lower-cost, focused genetic screening with primarily consumer and agricultural applications.

Executives

Aimee L Hoyt	officer: SVP, Chief People Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Jacob Thaysen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Susan H Tousi	officer: SVP Product Development	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Steven Barnard	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Scott B. Ullem	director	C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION, ONE EDWARDS WAY, IRVINE CA 92614
Stephen P Macmillan	director	250 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Andrew Teno	director	C/O FIR TREE INC., 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Alexander Aravanis	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Scott D Ericksen	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Charles Dadswell	officer: Sr VP & General Counsel	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
John Edward Frank	officer: Chief Public Affairs Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Phillip G. Febbo	officer: SVP Chief Medical Officer	C/O GENOMIC HEALTH, INC., 301 PENOBSCOT DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Carissa Rollins	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Kevin Carl Pegels	officer: Chief of Global Operations	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Jay T Flatley	officer: President & CEO	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121