Micron Technology (Micron Technology) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Micron Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Micron Technology (Micron Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Micron Technology Inc (NAS:MU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MU:Peru MU:Mexico MU_KZ:Kazakhstan MU:Italy MTEd:UK 0R2T:UK MTE:Germany MTE:Germany MTE:Germany MTE:Germany MUTC34:Brazil MU:Austria

Address

8000 South Federal Way, Post Office Box 6, Boise, ID, USA, 83716-9632

Website

https://www.micron.com

Micron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, specializing in memory and storage chips. Its primary revenue stream comes from dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, and it also has minority exposure to not-and or NAND, flash chips. Micron serves a global customer base, selling chips into data centers, mobile phones, consumer electronics, and industrial and automotive applications. The firm is vertically integrated.

Executives

Sanjay Mehrotra	officer: President & CEO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 3355 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92612
Scott J Deboer	officer: Vice President, R&D	8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Scott R. Allen	officer: CVP, Chief Accounting Officer	11690 N.W. 105TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33178
April L Arnzen	officer: VP, Human Resources	8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Michael W Bokan	officer: SVP, WORLDWIDE SALES	8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Sumit Sadana	officer: EVP & Chief Business Officer	47544 AVALON HEIGHTS TERRACE, FREMONT CA 94539
Richard M Beyer	director	6501 WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE, WEST, AUSTIN TX 78735
Manish H Bhatia	officer: EVP, Global Operations	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Robert P Beard	officer: SVP, General Counsel&Secretary	8000 S. FEDERAL WAY, BOISE ID 83716
Mark J. Murphy	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC, 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Joel L Poppen	officer: VP Legal Affairs, Gen Counsel, other: Corporate Secretary	8000 S. FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
David Zinsner	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	1001 MURPHY RANCH ROAD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Linnie M Haynesworth	director	214 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Lynn A Dugle	director	4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Paul Marosvari	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	8000 S. FEDERAL WAY, BOISE ID 83716