Impinj (Impinj) Predictability Rank

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What is Impinj Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Impinj Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Impinj (Impinj) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Impinj Inc (NAS:PI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

27J:Germany 27J:Germany

Address

400 Fairview Avenue North, Suite 1200, Seattle, WA, USA, 98109

Website

https://www.impinj.com

Impinj Inc operates a platform that enables wireless connectivity to everyday items by delivering each item's identity, location, and authenticity to business and consumer applications. Its platform includes endpoint integrated circuits (ICs) product, a miniature radios-on-a-chip, which attach to and identify their host items; and connectivity layer that comprises readers, gateways, and reader ICs to wirelessly identify, locate, authenticate, and engage endpoints via RAIN, as well as provide power to and communicate bidirectionally with endpoint ICs. Geographically, the company has a business presence in the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, of which key revenue is derived from the operations in the Asia Pacific region.

Executives

Hussein Mecklai	officer: Chief Operating Officer	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Cary Baker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1501 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Jeffrey Dossett	officer: EVP, Sales & Marketing	400 FAIRVIEW AVE. N, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Diorio Chris Ph.d.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Sylebra Capital Ltd	10 percent owner	28 HENNESSY ROAD, 20TH FLOOR, WAN CHAI, HONG KONG K3 00000
Cathal G Phelan	director	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Steve Sanghi	director	2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199
Miron Washington	director	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Gregory Sessler	director	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Meera Rao	director	1050 ENTERPRISE WAY, SUITE 700, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Van Oppen Peter H	director	P O BOX 97057, REDMOND WA 98073-9757
Umesh Padval	director	BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 535 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 245, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Daniel Patrick Gibson	director, 10 percent owner	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Denise Masters	officer: VP Accounting	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Eric Brodersen	officer: President and COO	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109