RealNetworks (RealNetworks) Predictability Rank

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What is RealNetworks Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RealNetworks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RealNetworks (RealNetworks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » RealNetworks Inc (NAS:RNWK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1501 First Avenue South, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, USA, 98134

Website

https://www.realnetworks.com

RealNetworks Inc creates a new generation of products that employ artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance and secure daily lives. Real's portfolio includes SAFR, the computer vision platform for live video; KONTXT, an NLP (Natural Language Processing) platform for text and multi-media analysis; and leveraging its digital media expertise, a mobile games business focused on the large free-to-play segment.

Executives

Brian Mccain	officer: CFO	1501 1ST AVENUE S, STE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Caldwell Mill Opportunity Fund, Llc	10 percent owner	2609 CALDWELL MILL LANE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Satterfield Thomas A Jr	10 percent owner	2609 CALDWELL MILL LN, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
A. G. Family L.p.	10 percent owner	571 MCDONALD ROAD, ROCKWALL TX 75032
Tomsat Investment & Trading Co., Inc.	10 percent owner	15 COLLEY COVE DRIVE, GULF BREEZE FL 32561
Rebecca S Satterfield	10 percent owner	15 COLLEY COVE DRIVE, GULF BREEZE FL 32561
Michael A Cooley	officer: President, Messaging	1501 1ST AVENUE S, STE. 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Christine Chambers	officer: CFO	1501 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, STE. 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Judd Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1501 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Michael Ensing	officer: Interim CFO	1501 1ST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134
Erik Prusch	director	C/O CLEARWIRE CORPORATION, 4400 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Michael Parham	officer: SVP General Counsel	2601 ELLIOTT AVE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Massimiliano Pellegrini	officer: Pres, Mobile Entertainment	C/O REALNETWORKS, INC., 2601 ELLIOTT AVE., SEATTLE WA 98121
Robert Glaser	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	1111 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 2900, SEATLE WA 98101
Cary Baker	officer: SVP, CFO & Treasurer	1501 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134