Nuvera Communications (Nuvera Communications) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuvera Communications Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuvera Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nuvera Communications (Nuvera Communications) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Nuvera Communications Inc (OTCPK:NUVR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

27 North Minnesota Street, New Ulm, MN, USA, 56073

Website

https://www.nuvera.net

Nuvera Communications Inc is a communications company. It provides Internet, digital TV, voice, and managed services such as web hosting and design, online file storage and others. It generates its revenue in the form of local services, network access, video, data, A-CAM/FUSF, and others. The company operates in the Communications Segment. The Communications Segment consists of voice, data and video communication services delivered to the customer over fiber communications network.

Executives

Glenn Zerbe	officer: CEO/President	27 NORTH MINNESOTA STREET, NEW ULM MN 56073
Craig Steven Anderson	officer: Chief Business Development Off	P.O. BOX 697, NEW ULM MN 56073
James J Seifert	director	C/O BEMIS CO INC, 222 S. 9TH ST. #2300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Skillings Colleen R.	director	36 WOODLAND DRIVE, NEW ULM MN 56073
Duane Lambrecht	director
Wesley E Schultz	director	PO BOX 2000, 3905 DAKOTA STREET SW, ALEXANDRIA MN 56308
Suzanne M. Spellacy	director	108 ALEXANDER COURT, MANKATO MN 56001
Barbara A Bornhoft	officer: Vice President
Perry Meyer	director	RR 3 BOX 130, NEW ULM MN 56073
James P Jensen	director
Curtis O. Kawlewski	officer: CFO	3710 REED ROAD, ST, BONIFACIUS MN 55375
Dennis Miller	director	18930 JASMINE ROAD, MANKATO MN 56001
Bill D Otis	officer: CEO/President
Patricia L Matthews	officer: Assistant Secretary
Mary Ellen Domeier	director

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