NorthWestern Energy Group (NorthWestern Energy Group) Predictability Rank

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What is NorthWestern Energy Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NorthWestern Energy Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NorthWestern Energy Group (NorthWestern Energy Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » NorthWestern Energy Group Inc (NAS:NWE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NWZA:Germany

Address

3010 West 69th Street, Sioux Falls, SD, USA, 57108

Website

https://www.northwesternenergy.com

NorthWestern Energy Group Inc provides electricity and natural gas services in the Upper Midwest and Northwest of the U.S. in the states of Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. The company's primary segments include Electric utility operations, which include the generation, purchase, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and Natural Gas utility operations, which include the production, purchase, transmission, storage, and distribution of natural gas. The company uses thermal, wind, hydro, or renewable energy in varying quantities, depending on the location of the facilities, to generate power. The company derives the majority of retail electric utility revenue from commercial and residential sales.

Executives

Bleau Lafave	officer: VP Asset Mgmt & Bus Dvlpmt	3010 W. 69TH STREET, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Sherina M. Edwards	director	1201 NETWORK CENTRE DRIVE, EFFINGHAM IL 62401
Jan Robert Horsfall	director
Britt E Ide	director	345 BOBWHITE COURT, SUITE 200, BOISE ID 83706
Cynthia Fang	officer: Vice President - Regulatory	208 N. MONTANA AVE., SUITE 200, HELENA MT 59601
Shannon Heim	officer: Vice President and GC	208 N. MONTANA AVE., SUITE 200, HELENA MT 59601
Bobbi L Schroeppel	officer: VP Cust. Care & Communications	125 S. DAKOTA AVENUE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Brian B Bird	officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer	125 S DAKOTA AVE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Michael R Cashell	officer: Vice President - Transmission	40 EAST BROADWAY STREET, BUTTE MT 59701
Robert C Rowe	director, officer: President & CEO	3010 WEST 69TH STREET, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Jason Merkel	officer: VP - Distribution	1313 NORTH LAST CHANCE GULCH, HELENA MT 59601
Kent T Larson	director	3010 W. 69TH STREET, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Curtis T Pohl	officer: Vice President - Distribution	125 S. DAKOTA AVENUE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Anthony Thomas Clark	director	3010 W 69TH STREET, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
H. Grahame Heather	officer: VP & General Counsel	209 N. MONTANA AVENUE, SUITE 205, HELENA MT 59601