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NexPoint Residential Trust (NexPoint Residential Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is NexPoint Residential Trust Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NexPoint Residential Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NexPoint Residential Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NexPoint Residential Trust (NexPoint Residential Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » NexPoint Residential Trust Inc (NYSE:NXRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CSR AIV UMH BRT ELME VRE CLPR BHM IRT AVB EQR INVH MAA SUI ESS ELS AMH UDR CPT TSX:CAR.UN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
300 Crescent Court, Suite 700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Website
https://www.nexpointliving.com
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc is an us-based real estate investment trust company. Its company's investment objectives are to maximize the cash flow and value of properties owned, acquire properties with cash flow growth potential, provide quarterly cash distributions, and achieve long-term capital appreciation for stockholders. The company seeks to achieve these objectives through targeted management and a capex value-add program. It focuses on acquiring multifamily properties in markets with attractive job growth and household formation fundamentals primarily in the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. The company generates revenue from the rental of multifamily properties.
Executives
Brian Mitts director, officer: See Remarks 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
James D Dondero director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Sauter Dennis Charles Jr officer: General Counsel 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Arthur B Laffer director 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Carol Swain director C/O NEXPOINT RESIDENTIAL TRUST, INC., 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Catherine D Wood director 200 CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1850, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33701
Matt Mcgraner officer: See Remarks 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Matthew Goetz officer: See Remarks 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Highland Capital Management Fund Advisors, L.p. 10 percent owner 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Edward N. Constantino director DLC REALTY TRUST, INC., 580 WHITE PLAINS ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Scott F Kavanaugh director 25342 DERBYHILL DR., LAGUNA HILLS CA 92653
Nexpoint Advisors, L.p. 10 percent owner 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Scott Ellington officer: General Counsel and Secretary 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Nexpoint Diversified Real Estate Trust 10 percent owner 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Highland Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1850, DALLAS TX 75201