What is Biohaven Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Biohaven Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Biohaven (Biohaven) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
215 Church Street, New Haven, CT, USA, 06510
Biohaven Ltd is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing therapies to improve the lives of patients with debilitating neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases, immunology, and disease-related biology, including rare disorders. Its neuroscience portfolio includes a broad pipeline of drug candidates modulating distinct nervous system targets, including Kv7, glutamate receptors, myostatin, and TRP channels. Its products target diseases such as migraine, depression, bipolar, and schizophrenia.
Executives
| Irina Antonijevic |
director |
215 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| John W Childs |
director |
111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 2900, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Vlad Coric |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP, 234 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Matthew Buten |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
215 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Gregory Bailey |
director |
4 A CHESHAM STREET, LONDON X0 SW1X8DT |
| George C. Clark |
officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer |
215 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Julia P Gregory |
director |
8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381 |
| Robert J Hugin |
director |
C/O THE MEDICINES CO, 8 CAMPUS DR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Michael Thomas Heffernan |
director |
C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC., 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250, CARY NC 27518 |
| Kimberly Gentile |
officer: SVP, Clinical Operations |
C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP, 234 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Kishan Mehta |
director |
540 WEST 49TH STREET, UNIT# PH1N, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
215 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Bruce Car |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
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