What is CONSOL Coal Resources LP Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CONSOL Coal Resources LP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CONSOL Coal Resources LP (CONSOL Coal Resources LP) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1000 CONSOL Energy Drive, Suite 100, CNX Center, Canonsburg, PA, USA, 15317-6506
CONSOL Coal Resources LP is engaged in the thermal coal operations in Pennsylvania. The company's assets include interests in CONSOL energy's Pennsylvania mining complex, which consists of approximately three underground mines (Bailey Mine, Enlow Fork Mine, and Harvey Mine) and related infrastructure that produce bituminous thermal coal that is sold primarily to electric utilities in the eastern United States. All the operations of the group are conducted at a single mining complex located in the Northern Appalachian Basin in southwestern Pennsylvania.
Executives
| Jeffrey L Wallace |
director, other: SEE REMARKS |
1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Michael L Greenwood |
director, other: SEE REMARKS |
|
| Dan D Sandman |
director, other: SEE REMARKS |
|
| Miteshkumar Thakkar |
officer: See Remarks |
1000 CONSOL DRIVE, SUITE 100, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| John Rothka |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
2970 HENDERSON AVENUE, WASHINGTON PA 15301 |
| Consol Energy Inc. |
director, 10 percent owner |
1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE SUITE #100 CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Greenlight Capital Inc |
10 percent owner |
140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Dme Advisors, Lp |
10 percent owner |
140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Dme Advisors Gp, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Dme Capital Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| David Einhorn |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes (1) - (11) |
140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Deborah J. Lackovic |
director, other: SEE REMARKS |
C/O CONSOL COAL RESOURCES LP 100 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, SUITE 100 CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Kurt R. Salvatori |
director, other: SEE REMARKS |
1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Martha A Wiegand |
officer: SEE REMARKS |
1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| James A Brock |
director, officer: SEE REMARKS |
1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
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