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Edwards Lifesciences Predictability Rank


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4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Edwards Lifesciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Edwards Lifesciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Edwards Lifesciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Edwards Lifesciences Business Description

Edwards Lifesciences logo
Industry
Address
One Edwards Way, Irvine, CA, USA, 92614
Spun off from Baxter International in 2000, Edwards Lifesciences designs, manufactures, and markets a range of medical devices and equipment for advanced stages of structural heart disease. Its key products include surgical tissue heart valves, transcatheter valve technologies, surgical clips, catheters, and monitoring systems used to measure a patient's heart function during surgery. The firm derives about 55% of its total sales from outside the U.S.
Executives
Ullem Scott B. officer: CVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Bobo Donald E Jr officer: CVP,Strategy/Corp Development C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Mussallem Michael A director, officer: Chairman & CEO C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Wang Huimin officer: CVP, Japan & Intercontinental C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Wood Larry L officer: CVP, TAVR C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Sellers Robert W.a. officer: VP, Corporate Controller ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Szyman Catherine M. officer: CVP, Critical Care C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Laviolette Paul A director ONE BOSTON PLACE 201 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 3900 BOSTON MA 02108
Lemercier Jean-luc M officer: CVP, EMEA, Canada, Latin Amer C/O ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Sequeira Ramona director ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Marsh Martha H. director 9769 WEXFORD CIRCLE GRANITE BAY CA 95746
Gallahue Kieran director 7530 DRAPER AVENUE SUITE 6 LA JOLLA CA 92037
Valeriani Nicholas J director C/O EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION ONE EDWARDS WAY IRVINE CA 92614
Stone Heisz Leslie director C/O PUBLIC STORAGE 701 WESTERN AVENUE GLENDALE CA 91201
Link William J Phd director ONE SANSOME STREET SUITE 3630 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104

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