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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CIM FBRT TWO MFA LADR ARI EFC RWT KREF CMTG NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC NYMT ARR DX
Traded in Other Exchanges
PMTpC.PFD:USA PMTpB.PFD:USA PMTpA.PFD:USA
Address
3043 Townsgate Road, Westlake Village, CA, USA, 91361
Website
https://www.pennymacmortgageinvestmenttrust.com
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is a specialty finance company that invests primarily in residential mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. The company's operations include activities such as production and servicing of financial securities based on residential loans and pooling and reselling of high-credit-quality mortgages. The company operates through four segments: correspondent production, credit-sensitive strategies, interest-rate-sensitive strategies, and corporate activities. The correspondent production segment, which generates income via purchasing, pooling, and reselling of loans or mortgage-backed securities accounts for roughly half of the company's income.
Executives
Scott W. Carnahan director 3820 VISTA AZUL, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92672
Catherine A. Lynch director 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Donna M Corley director 8200 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Doug Jones officer: Chief Correspondent Lending Of C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
William Herbert Chang officer: Chief Investment Officer PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Stacey D. Stewart director 5920 WALHONDING ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20816
Marianne Sullivan director C/O PENNYMAC, 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
David Spector officer: President and COO, other: Trustee C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
James Follette officer: Chief Mortgage Fulfillment Ofr PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Renee Schultz director C/O PENNYMAC, 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Derek Stark officer: Chief Legal Officer 4500 PARK GRANADA, CALABASAS CA 91302
Frank P Willey director 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 18934
Randall D. Hadley director 23821 FAIRGREENS EAST, LAGUNA NIGUEL CA 92677
Nancy Mcallister, director 30 CAMP WOODBINE ROAD, PORT JEFFERSON NY 11777
Preston Paul Dufauchard, Jr. director 11230 ELVESSA STREET, OAKLAND CA 94605