VEREIT (VEREIT) Predictability Rank

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What is VEREIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VEREIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VEREIT (VEREIT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » VEREIT Inc (NYSE:VER) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2325 East Camelback Road, 9th Floor, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85016

Website

https://www.vereit.com

VEREIT Inc is a real estate investment trust primarily involved in the ownership of property located in the U.S. and Canada. VEREIT organizes its operations through the Real Estate Investment segment and the investment management segment. The company derives the vast majority of its income from its Real Estate Investment division in the form of rental income from long-term leases. This business unit owns and manages a real estate portfolio that is fairly evenly diversified between retail, restaurant, office, and industrial properties. A sizable amount of the company's total rental income is derived from customers in the casual dining restaurant and manufacturing industries.

Executives

Mary Hogan Preusse	director	C/O KIMCO REALTY CORP., 3333 NEW HYDE PARK ROAD, NEW HYDE PARK NY 11042
Julie Richardson	director	YEXT, INC., 1 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Eugene A Pinover	director	333 CENTRAL PARK WEST, APT 66 NEW YORK NY 10025
Hugh R Frater	director, other: Non-Executive Chairman	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Glenn J Rufrano	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEW PLAN EXCEL REALTY TRUST, INC., 1120 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1200, NEW YORK NY 10036
Gavin Brandon	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	2325 E CAMELBACK RD, 9TH FLOOR, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Mark S Ordan	director	7315 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE #250 WEST, BETHESDA MD 20814
David Henry	director	3333 NEW HYDE PARK ROAD, NEW HYDE PARK NY 11042
Richard J Lieb	director	C/O GREENHILL & CO., INC.,, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul H Mcdowell	officer: See Remarks	110 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10005
Michael J. Bartolotta	officer: See Remarks	7 VIK DRIVE, WARWICK NY 10990
Lauren Goldberg	officer: See Remarks	23 W. 73RD. ST. #508 NEW YORK NY 10023
Thomas W Roberts	officer: See Remarks	2325 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1100, PHOENIX NY 85016
Miller William Craig Jr.	officer: See Remarks	315 PONDFIELD ROAD BRONXVILLE NY 10708
Bruce D Frank	director	405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022