VF (VFC) Predictability Rank

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What is VF Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VF Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VF (VFC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » VF Corp (NYSE:VFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VFC:Mexico 1VFC:Italy VFP:Germany VFP:Germany VFP:Germany VFP:Germany VFCO34:Brazil

Address

1551 Wewatta Street, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.vfc.com

VF designs, produces, and distributes branded apparel, footwear, and accessories. Its apparel categories are active, outdoor, and work. Its portfolio of about a dozen brands includes Vans, The North Face, Timberland, Supreme, and Dickies. VF markets its products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific through wholesale sales to retailers, e-commerce, and branded stores owned by the company and partners. The company has grown through multiple acquisitions and traces its roots to 1899.

Executives

Matthew J Shattock	director	510 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Brent Hyder	officer: EVP, Chief People Officer	415 MISSION STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Trevor A Edwards	director	2080 NW 133RD PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97229
Richard Carucci	director	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 47113
Bracken Darrell	officer: President & Chief Exec Officer	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Juliana L Chugg	director	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, PO BOX 64683, ST PAUL MN 55164-0683
Benno O Dorer	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Clarence Jr Otis	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Mark Samuel Hoplamazian	director	71 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4700, CHICAGO IL 60606
Anita Z Graham	officer: EVP, CHRO & Public Affairs	C/O THE ADT CORPORATION, 1501 YAMATO ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Nicole Beth Otto	officer: EVP & Global Brand Pres. TNF	C/O CONTAINER STORE GROUP, INC., 500 FREEPORT PARKWAY, COPPELL TX 75019
W Rodney Mcmullen	director	1014 VINE ST, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Alex Cho	director	HP, 1501 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Matthew H Puckett	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1551 WEWATTA STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Jennifer S. Sim	officer: EVP, GC & Secretary	1551 WEWATTA STREET, DENVER CO 80202