What is Orion Energy Systems Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Orion Energy Systems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Orion Energy Systems (Orion Energy Systems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2210 Woodland Drive, Manitowoc, WI, USA, 54220
Orion Energy Systems Inc is a developer, manufacturer, and seller of lighting and energy management systems. The company segments include Orion Services Group (OSG), which accounts for the majority revenue; Orion Distribution Services Division (ODS); Orion U.S. Markets Division (USM); Orion Electric Vehicle Charging Systems and Corporate and Other. The OSG segment develops and sells lighting products and provides construction and engineering services for commercial lighting and energy management system also provides retailers, distributors and other businesses with maintenance, repair and replacement services for the lighting and related electrical components deployed in their facilities.
Executives
| J Per Brodin |
officer: EVP, CFO, CAO & Treasurer |
|
| Scott A. Green |
officer: President-Orion Services Group |
2210 WOODLAND DRIVE, MANITOWOC WI 54220 |
| Ellen B Richstone |
director |
C/O SONUS NETWORKS, INC., 7 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886 |
| Michael H Jenkins |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2210 WOODLAND DRIVE, MANITOWOC WI 54220 |
| Anthony L. Otten |
director |
2210 WOODLAND DRIVE, MANITOWOC WI 54220 |
| Richard A Shapiro |
director |
C/O WEXFORD CAPITAL, 411 WEST PUTNAM AVE, SUITE 125, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Sally A. Washlow |
director |
6500 W. CORTLAND STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607 |
| Heather L Wishart-smith |
director |
2210 WOODLAND DRIVE, MANITOWOC WI 54220 |
| Charles R. Mcdulin |
director |
2210 WOODLAND DRIVE, MANITOWOC WI 54220 |
| Michael W Altschaefl |
director |
ALBANY-CHICAGO COMPANY LLC, 8200 100TH STREET, PLEASANT PRAIRIE WI 53158 |
| Michael J Potts |
director, officer: Executive Vice President |
ORION ENERGY SYSTEMS, INC., 1204 PILGRIM ROAD, PLYMOUTH WI 53073 |
| Alan B Howe |
director |
1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081 |
| Kenneth M Young |
director |
C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD., SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
| William T Hull |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
9395 HUNT CLUB TRAIL, WARREN OH 44484 |
| Mark C Williamson |
director |
123 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 202, MADISON WI 53703 |
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