What is ORIC Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ORIC Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
240 E. Grand Avenue, 2nd Floor, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
ORIC Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It has a pipeline of therapies designed to counter resistance mechanisms in cancer by leveraging its expertise within three specific areas: hormone-dependent cancers, precision oncology, and key tumor dependencies. The company has product candidates namely ORIC-944, ORIC-114, and ORIC-533.
Executives
| Jacob Chacko |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11095 FLINTKOTE AVE., SUITE D, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Pratik S Multani |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Dominic Piscitelli |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ANAPTYSBIO, INC., 10421 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Pfizer Inc |
10 percent owner |
66 HUDSON BOULEVARD EAST, NEW YORK NY 10001-2192 |
| Column Group Llc |
10 percent owner |
1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE M-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Column Group Ii Gp, Lp |
10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Peter Svennilson |
10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Column Group Ii, Lp |
10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| David V Goeddel |
10 percent owner |
C/O COLUMN GROUP LP, 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Angie You |
director |
C/O AMUNIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2 TOWER PLACE, #1100, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Richard A. Heyman |
director |
5871 OBERLIN DRIVE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Steven L. Hoerter |
director |
C/O DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 SMITH STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Richard H Scheller |
director |
C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990 |
| Orbimed Advisors Llc |
director |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Carl L Gordon |
director |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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