Primoris Services (Primoris Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Primoris Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Primoris Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Primoris Services (Primoris Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Primoris Services Corp (NYSE:PRIM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1PM:Germany

Address

2300 N. Field Street, Suite 1900, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.primoriscorp.com

Primoris Services Corp is a specialty contractor and infrastructure company in the United States. It has three operating segments. The Utility segment specializes in a range of services, including the installation and maintenance of new and existing natural gas distribution systems, electric utility distribution and transmission systems, and communications systems. The pipeline segment constructs and maintains pipelines for the petroleum and petrochemical industries. The Energy/Renewables segment includes engineering, procurement, construction, retrofits, highway and bridge construction, demolition, and other services. The Energy/Renewables segment earns the majority of the revenue. Primoris earns most of its revenue in the U.S.

Executives

Thomas Edward Mccormick	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2100 MCKINNEY AVE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201
Stephen C. Cook	director	7500 SAN FELIPE, STE. 600, HOUSTON TX 77063
David Lee King	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2100 MCKINNEY AVE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201
John M. Perisich	officer: Senior VP and General Counsel, other: Member - see remark	26000 COMMERCENTRE DR., LAKE FOREST CA 92630
John Schauerman	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Member - see remark	26000 COMMERCENTRE DR., LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Moreno John F Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION, 2300 NORTH FIELD ST, SUITE 1900, DALLAS TX 75201
Michael E. Ching	director	C/O PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION, 2300 N FIELD STREET, SUITE 1900, DALLAS TX 75201
Terry D Mccallister	director	1100 H ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20080
Jose Ramon Rodriguez	director	PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION, 2300 NORTH FIELD STREET, SUITE 1900, DALLAS TX 75201
Thomas E. Tucker	director	3 UPPER NEWPORT PLAZA DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Patricia K Wagner	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95020
Kenneth Morris Dodgen	officer: Corporate Controller	2100 MCKINNEY AVE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201
Brian Pratt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO & President, other: Member - see remark	5950 BERKSHIRE LANE, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75225
Carla S Mashinski	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Travis L Stricker	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2103 RESEARCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380