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Pillarstone Capital REIT (Pillarstone Capital REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is Pillarstone Capital REIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pillarstone Capital REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pillarstone Capital REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pillarstone Capital REIT (Pillarstone Capital REIT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Pillarstone Capital REIT (OTCPK:PRLEQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CAKE LKNCY CHUY BLMN TXRH DPZ EAT WEN CBRL LOCO ARE BXP XPAR:GFC TSE:8951 ASX:DXS TSE:8952 KRC VNO CUZ ASX:CMW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2600 South Gessner, Suite 555, Houston, TX, USA, 77063
Website
https://www.pillarstone-capital.com
Pillarstone Capital REIT is a real estate investment trust. It is engaged in the business activity of investing, owning, and operating non-retail, commercial, and residential real estate properties. The company's property portfolio includes Corporate Park Northwest, Corporate Park West, Corporate Park Woodland, Holly Hall, Holly Knight, and Uptown Tower among others located in Houston and Dallas, Texas.
Executives
Paul T Lambert director, 10 percent owner
Dennis Chookaszian director 20 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60626
Kathy M Jassem director C/O PILLARSTONE CAPITAL REIT, 2600 S. GESSNER RD., SUITE 555, HOUSTON TX 77063
Mark Schurgin 10 percent owner 9841 AIRPORT BOULEVARD, SUITE 700, LOS ANGELES CA 90045
Jack R Kuhn officer: Senior Vice President 1240 HURON ROAD, SUITE 301, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Paragon Real Estate Development Llc 10 percent owner
Daniel G Devos director 1240 HURON ROAD SUITE 301, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Michael T Oliver director 1240 HURON ROAD SUITE 301, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Steven B Hoyt 10 percent owner 2865 LITTLE ORCHARD WAY, ORONO MN 55391
James C Mastandrea director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO and President 1240 HURON ROAD SUITE 301, CLEVELAND OH 44115
John J Dee officer: Senior Vice President
Daryl J Carter director CAPRI CAPITAL LP, 18301 VON KARMAN AVE STE 750, IRVIN CA 92612
Steven M Edelman officer: Chief Investment Officer
Duane H Lund director, officer: Vice President

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