Ring Energy (Ring Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Ring Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ring Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ring Energy (Ring Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Ring Energy Inc (AMEX:REI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KWE1:Germany

Address

1725 Hughes Landing Boulevard, Suite 900, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.ringenergy.com

Ring Energy Inc is an independent exploration and production company based in The Woodlands, Texas and is engaged in oil and natural gas development, production, acquisition, and exploration activities currently focused in the Permian Basin of Texas. The drilling operations of the company target the oil and liquids rich producing formations in the Northwest Shelf, the Central Basin Platform, and the Delaware Basin all of which are part of the Permian Basin in Texas.

Executives

John A Crum	director	5400 WESTHEIMER COURT, HOUSTON TX 77056
Paul D. Mckinney	director, officer: CEO and Chairman of the Board	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1825, HOUSTON TX 77027
Anthony Benedict Petrelli	director	6250 RAIN DANCE TRAIL, LITTLETON CO 80125
Stronghold Energy Ii Operating, Llc	10 percent owner	508 W. WALL STREET, SUITE %%), MIDLAND TX 79701
Warburg Pincus & Co Us, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus (e&p) Xii Llc	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard E Harris	director	2000 CHARWOOD DR, APT 2502, COLUMBUS IN 47201
William T Kruse	10 percent owner	1340 S MAIN ST., STE 300, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
David Habachy	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus (e&p) Xii, L.p.	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Private Equity (e&p) Xii-d (a), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wp Xii (e&p) Partners (a), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Xii (e&p) Partners-2, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Xii (e&p) Partners-1, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Private Equity (e&p) Xii-e (a), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON, NEW YORK NY 10017