What is Cartesian Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cartesian Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cartesian Therapeutics (Cartesian Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
65 Grove Street, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472
Cartesian Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company uses its ImmTOR immune tolerance platform, which is designed to give rise to antigen-specific immunity, mitigating unwanted immune responses. Its product pipeline includes MMA-101, SEL-212 for Chronic Severe Gout, SEL-313 for Ornithine Transcarbamylase Deficiency (OTC), and others.
Executives
| Carsten Brunn |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O SELECTA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Peter G Traber |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
430 THAMER LANE, HOUSTON TX 77025 |
| Takashi Kei Kishimoto |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
480 ARSENAL ST., BUILDING ONE, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Lloyd P. Johnston |
officer: COO and SVP, R&D |
480 ARSENAL ST., BUILDING ONE, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Blaine Davis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Carrie Smith Cox |
director |
SCHERING-PLOUGH CORPORATION, 2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033 |
| Timothy C Barabe |
director |
C/O ARQULE, INC., 1 WALL STREET, 6TH FLOOR, BURLINGTON MA 01803 |
| Timothy A Springer |
director |
36 WOODMAN ROAD, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467 |
| Kevin Tan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
20 HICKORY ROAD, WELLESLEY MA 02482 |
| Nishan M Desilva |
director |
11119 NORTH TORREY PINES RD STE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Ann K. Donohue |
officer: VP Finance |
C/O SELECTA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, BUILDING ONE, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Bradford D. Dahms |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SELECTA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Goran Ando |
director |
|
| Scott Dunseth Myers |
director |
C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121 |
| Elona Esq. Kogan |
officer: General Counsel |
C/O SEER, INC., 3800 BRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 102, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065 |
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