Reservoir Media (Reservoir Media) Predictability Rank

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What is Reservoir Media Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reservoir Media Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Reservoir Media Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Reservoir Media (Reservoir Media) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Reservoir Media Inc (NAS:RSVR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0RL0:Germany

Address

200 Varick Street, Suite 801A, New York, NY, USA, 10014

Website

https://www.reservoir-media.com

Reservoir Media Inc is an independent music company. The company's segment includes Music Publishing; Recorded Music and others. It generates maximum revenue from the Music Publishing segment.

Executives

Ezra S. Field	director	75 VARICK STREEET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Stephen M. Cook	director	75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Ryan P. Taylor	director	381 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, ROOM 1101, NEW YORK NY 10016
Essex Equity Joint Investment Vehicle, Llc	other: May Be Deemed a 10% Owner	375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Richmond Hill Capital Partners, Lp	other: May be deemed a 10% owner	375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
James A Heindlmeyer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Richmond Hill Advisors, Llc	other: May be deemed a 10% owner	375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Golnar Khosrowshahi	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERATIONAL INC., 5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Richmond Hill Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	381 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 1101, NEW YORK NY 10016
Adam Rothstein	director	101 CROSS HWY, WESTPORT CA 92610
Er Reservoir Llc	10 percent owner	C/O RICHMOND HILL INVESTMENTS, 375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Lafargue Rell Q. Jr.	director, officer: President and COO	75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Gelder Neil De	director	75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Essex Equity Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	381 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, ROOM 1101, NEW YORK NY 10016
Jennifer G. Koss	director	75 VARICK STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013