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Retractable Technologies (Retractable Technologies) Predictability Rank


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What is Retractable Technologies Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Retractable Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Retractable Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Retractable Technologies (Retractable Technologies) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Retractable Technologies Inc (AMEX:RVP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
POCI OMIC FEMY DXR EKSO MLSS NEPH UEEC MHUA MBOT ISRG XPAR:EL BDX TSE:7741 XSWX:ALC OCSE:COLO B RMD WST XPAR:DIM TSE:4543
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
511 Lobo Lane, Little Elm, TX, USA, 75068-5295
Website
https://www.retractable.com
Retractable Technologies Inc designs, develops, manufactures, and markets safety syringes and other safety medical products for the healthcare profession. The company's products are the VanishPoint 0.5mL insulin syringe; 1mL tuberculin, insulin, and allergy antigen syringes; 0.5mL, 1mL, 2mL, 3mL, 5mL, and 10mL syringes; the small diameter tube adapter; the blood collection tube holder; the allergy tray; the IV safety catheter; the Patient Safe syringes; the Patient Safe Luer Cap; the VanishPoint Blood Collection Set; and the EasyPoint needle, as well as a standard 3mL syringe packaged with an EasyPoint needle. The company also sells VanishPoint autodisable syringes in the international market in addition to its other products.
Executives
Thomas J Shaw director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO 511 LOBO LANE, LITTLE ELM TX 75068
Braden Michael Leonard 10 percent owner 156 S. FIRST STREET, ZIONSVILLE IN 46077
Bigby Walter O Jr director 816 BENTON RD, BOSSIER CITY LA 71111
Darren E Findley director 1618 GRASSMERE RD, FRANKLIN TN 37064
Russell B Kuhlman director, officer: Vice President of Sales 511 LOBO LANE, PO BOX 9, LITTLE ELM TX 75068
Fort John W Iii director, officer: Chief Financial Officer 511 LOBO LANE, LITTLE ELM TX 75068
Amy Mack director 1701 LEGACY DRIVE SUITE 100, FRISCO TX 75034
Clarence D Zierhut director 1217 BLUEBIRD LANE, GARLAND TX 75042
Lillian E Salerno 10 percent owner 777 7TH AVENUE, UNIT 308, WASHINGTON DC 20001
Suzanne M August 10 percent owner 340 NORTH JULIA CIRCLE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33706
Steven R Wisner director, officer: Exec. VP, Eng & Prod. 511 LOBO LANE, PO BOX 9, LITTLE ELM TX 75068
Marco Laterza director P.O. BOX 64104, EL PASO TX 79904
Jimmie Shiu director 511 LOBO LANE, P.O. BOX 9, LITTLE ELM TX 75068
Patti King director 9145 MARTIN ROAD, ROSWELL GA 30076
Michele Larios officer: Vice President/General Counsel 511 LOBO LANE, LITTLE ELM TX 75068

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