What is Stellus Capital Investment Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Stellus Capital Investment Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Stellus Capital Investment (Stellus Capital Investment) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4400 Post Oak Parkway, Suite 2200, Houston, TX, USA, 77027
Stellus Capital Investment Corp is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. Its objective is to maximize the total return to its stockholders in the form of current income and capital appreciation. It invests through a first lien, second lien, unitranche, and mezzanine debt financing, often with a corresponding equity investment. The company invests in various sectors, such as business services, energy, general industrial, government services, healthcare, software, and specialty finance. Business activity of the firm is functioned through the United States and it generates revenue in the form of interest income on debt investments and capital gains and distributions.
Executives
| Bruce R Bilger |
director |
C/O STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Robert T. Ladd |
director, officer: President and CEO |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Dean D'angelo |
director |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| J Tim Arnoult |
director |
100 NORTH TRYON STREET, NC1-007-52-10, CHARLOTTE NC 28255 |
| Joshua T. Davis |
director |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| W. Todd Huskinson |
officer: CFO & Chief Compliance Officer |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Robert Ladd |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O LADDCAP VALUE ADVISORS LLC, 650 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Paul Keglevic |
director |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Dc Funding Spv 2, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1 and 2 |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| D. E. Shaw & Co, L.p. |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1 and 2 |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| David E Shaw |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1 and 2 |
120 WEST FORTY-FIFTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| D. E. Shaw Direct Capital, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1 and 2 |
1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NINTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| William C Repko |
director |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
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