Seagen (Seagen) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2001. Start your Free Trial

What is Seagen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seagen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Seagen Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Seagen's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Seagen (Seagen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Seagen Inc (NAS:SGEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

21823 - 30th Drive South East, Bothell, WA, USA, 98021

Website

https://www.seagen.com

Seagen (formerly known as Seattle Genetics) is a biotech firm that develops and commercializes therapies to treat cancers. Seagen's therapies are based on antibody-drug conjugate technology that utilizes the targeting ability of monoclonal antibodies to deliver cell-killing agents directly to cancer cells. The company's lead product, Adcetris, has received approval for six indications to treat Hodgkin lymphoma and T-cell lymphoma. Other approved products include Padcev for bladder cancer, Tukysa for breast cancer, and Tivdak for cervical cancer. The company has several other oncology programs in pivotal trials. Seagen also licenses its antibody-drug conjugate technology to several leading biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies.

Executives

David R Epstein	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC., 521 W. 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vaughn B Himes	officer: See Remarks	C/O SEATTLE GENETICS, INC., 21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Charles R Romp	officer: EVP, Commercial	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Roger D Dansey	officer: See Remarks	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Jean I Liu	officer: GC & EVP, Legal Affairs	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Todd E Simpson	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Daniel G Welch	director	4611 UNIVERSITY DR, 4 UNIVERSITY PLACE, DURHAM NC 27707
David W Gryska	director	749 N MARY AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Sandra M Swain	director	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Ted W Love	director	C/O GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT, SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Clay B Siegall	director, officer: President and CEO	21823 30TH DR SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Felix Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014