Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (Shenandoah Telecommunications Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Shenandoah Telecommunications Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shenandoah Telecommunications Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Shenandoah Telecommunications Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (Shenandoah Telecommunications Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (NAS:SHEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Shentel Way, Edinburg, VA, USA, 22824

Website

https://www.shentel.com

Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, with its subsidiaries, provides various broadband communication products and services via its wireless, cable, fiber optic, and fixed wireless networks to customers in the Mid-Atlantic United States. The company operates through two business units: tower and broadband. The tower segment leases company-owned cell tower spaces to other wireless communication providers, while the broadband segment provides broadband Internet, video, and voice services to residential and commercial customers. The broadband segment generates the vast majority of the company's revenue, with the bulk of sales flowing from residential and small, and medium businesses within the broadband unit.

Executives

Tracy Fitzsimmons	director	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Koontz Richard L Jr	director	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Kenneth L Quaglio	director	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Thomas Beckett	director	111 W. CONGRESS STREET, CHARLES TOWN WV 25414
Victor Christopher Barnes	director	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Christopher E French	officer: President & CEO	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Heather K Banks	officer: VP & Chief HRO	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Dara Leslie	officer: SVP Sales & Marketing	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Derek Rieger	officer: VP-Legal/Gen Counsel & Sec	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Dennis Romps	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	12018 SUNRISE VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 600, RESTON VA 20191
David L Heimbach	officer: Executive VP & COO	221 E. FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
William L Pirtle	other: VP-PCS	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
Thomas A Whitaker	officer: VP-Wireless & Cable Operations	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824
James J Volk	officer: SR VP FINANCE & CFO
Chase L Stobbe	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	PO BOX 459, EDINBURG VA 22824