Summit Midstream Partners LP (Summit Midstream Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Summit Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Summit Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Summit Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Summit Midstream Partners LP (Summit Midstream Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Summit Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SMLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

BPT MMLP DLNG CWPE GPP PXS IMPP OSG BANL SNMP TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

910 Louisiana Street, Suite 4200, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

http://www.summitmidstream.com

Summit Midstream Partners LP is a United States-based energy solutions provider involved in the oil and gas industry. The company develops, owns, and operates midstream energy infrastructure assets. The company conduct and reports operations in the midstream energy industry through five reportable segments: Northeast, Rockies, Permian, Piceance, and Barnett. It offers systems that gather natural gas from pad sites, wells, and central receipt points connected to the company's systems with provisions to supply to processing plants, contractors, and end-users. The Majority of its assets are located in the producing areas of unconventional resource basins in the continental United States. It derives the majority of its revenues from the Piceance.

Executives

James David Johnston	officer: See remarks below.	910 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002
Rommel M. Oates	director, other: See Remarks.	910 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002
William J. Mault	officer: See remarks below.	910 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002
Matthew B. Sicinski	officer: See remarks below.	910 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002
James J Cleary	director, other: See Remarks.	12 E. 49TH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marguerite Woung-chapman	director, other: See Remarks.	1001 LOUISIANA, HOUSTON TX 77002
Robert Joseph Mcnally	director, other: See Remarks.	625 LIBERTY AVENUE, SUITE 1700, C/O EQT CORPORATION, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Christopher M Leininger	director, other: See Remarks.	11943 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Francesco Ciabatti	director, other: See Remarks.	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
J Heath Deneke	director, officer: See remarks below.	700 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2550, HOUSTON TX 77002
James Lee Jacobe	director, other: See Remarks.	1790 HUGHES LANDING BLVD., SUITE 500, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Energy Capital Partners Ii-c (summit Ip), Lp	director, 10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 1250, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Ii (summit Co-invest), Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ENERGY CAPITAL PARTNERS II, 51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Ii-b Ip, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 1250, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Ii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 1250, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078