Sotherly Hotels (Sotherly Hotels) Predictability Rank

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What is Sotherly Hotels Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sotherly Hotels Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sotherly Hotels (Sotherly Hotels) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Sotherly Hotels Inc (NAS:SOHO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SOHON.PFD:USA SOHOO.PFD:USA SOHOB.PFD:USA MCL:Germany

Address

306 South Henry Street, Suite 100, Williamsburg, VA, USA, 23185

Website

https://www.sotherlyhotels.com

Sotherly Hotels Inc is engaged in Hotel operations. The company is a self-managed and self-administered lodging real estate investment trust that was formed to own, acquire, renovate, and reposition full-service, upscale, and upper-upscale hotel properties located in primary markets in the mid-Atlantic and southern United States. It generates revenue through the rooms, food, beverage, and other services. Geographically, the group has its presence in the regions of Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.

Executives

Andrew Sims	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	410 W. FRANCIS STREET, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Scott M Kucinski	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	306 S. HENRY STREET, SUITE 100, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
David R Folsom	officer: Chief Operating Officer	410 W. FRANCIS STREET, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Maria L Caldwell	director	410 W FRANCIS ST, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Gibson George S Iv	director	410 W FRANCIS ST, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Anthony E Domalski	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6411 IVY LANE, SUITE 510, GREENBELT MD 20770
Herschel J Walker	director	410 W FRANCIS ST, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Kim Sims	director	6411 IVY LANE, SUITE 510, GREENBELT MD 20770
Richmond Hill Investment Co., Lp	other: Member of Group Owning 10%	381 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 1101, NEW YORK NY 10016
Richmond Hill Advisors, Llc	other: Member of Group Owning 10%	375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Essex Illiquid, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10%	375 HUDSON STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Richmond Hill Capital Partners, Lp	other: Member of Group Owning 10%	375 HUDSON STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Basil Maher	10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10%	C/O ESSEX EQUITY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 70 S. ORANGE AVENUE, SUITE 105, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
M. Brian Maher	10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10%	C/O ESSEX EQUITY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 70 S. ORANGE AVENUE, SUITE 105, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Richmond Hill Investments, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10%	381 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 1101, NEW YORK NY 10016