SP Plus (SP Plus) Predictability Rank

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What is SP Plus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SP Plus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SP Plus (SP Plus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » SP Plus Corp (NAS:SP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PZA:Germany

Address

200 East Randolph Street, Suite 7700, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601-7702

Website

https://www.spplus.com

SP Plus Corp Provides parking management, ground transportation, and other ancillary services to commercial, institutional, and municipal clients in urban markets and airports across the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. Its services include a comprehensive set of on-site parking management and ground transportation services, In addition, the company also provides a range of ancillary services such as airport and municipal shuttle operations, valet services, taxi and livery dispatch services, and municipal meter revenue collection and enforcement services. Its reportable segments are Commercial and Aviation. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Commercial segment.

Executives

G Marc Baumann	officer: CFO, Treas & Pres of Urban Ops	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60611
Christopher R Sherman	officer: President, Commercial Division	C/O SP PLUS CORPORATION, 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 7700, CHICAGO IL 60601
Robert Toy	officer: Executive VP, Operations	C/O STANDARD PARKING CORPORATION, 900 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60611
John Ricchiuto	officer: Exec. VP, Airport Division	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60611
Gary T Roberts	officer: SVP, Corp. Cont., Asst. Treas.	C/O SP PLUS CORPORATION, 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 7700, CHICAGO IL 60601
Diana L Sands	director	100 N RIVERSIDE PLAZA, M/C 5003-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606
Kristopher H Roy	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O SP PLUS CORPORATION, 200 E. RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 7700, CHICAGO IL 60601
Robert A Miles	officer: President, Bags	C/O SP PLUS CORPORATION, 200 E. RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 7700, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gerard M Klaisle	officer: Exec. VP & Chief H.R. Officer
Ritu Vig	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O SP PLUS CORPORATION, 200 E. RANDOLPH ST., SUITE 7700, CHICAGO IL 60601
Thomas L Hagerman	officer: Exec. VP, Business Development	900 NORTH MICHIGAN SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60611
Alice M Peterson	director	3333 BEVERLY RD B5-153A, HOFFMAN ESTTES IL 60179
Robert N Sacks	officer: Exec. VP, Gen. Counsel & Sec.	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60611
Robert S Roath	director	781 THIRD AVENUE, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 194061409
Kohlberg Cpc Rep, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O KOHLBERG & COMPANY, LLC, 111 RADIO CIRCLE, MT. KISCO NY 10549