SPS Commerce (SPS Commerce) Predictability Rank

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What is SPS Commerce Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SPS Commerce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SPS Commerce Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SPS Commerce (SPS Commerce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » SPS Commerce Inc (NAS:SPSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S86:Germany

Address

333 South Seventh Street, Suite 1000, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55402

Website

https://www.spscommerce.com

SPS Commerce Inc is a provider of cloud-based supply chain management services for retailers, grocers, distributors, suppliers, and logistics firms to increase supply chain performance, optimize inventory levels and sell-through, reduce operational costs, improve order visibility, and satisfy consumer demands for a seamless omnichannel experience. Its solutions are delivered through the SPS Commerce platform and provide integrations and retail performance analytics to its customers. Its products are; Fulfillment, Analytics, and Other products like Assortment and Community also it provides one-time services such as professional services and testing and certification. The group derives revenue from recurring monthly fees and set-up fees.

Executives

Marty M Reaume	director	TWILIO INC, 375 BEALE STREET SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Archie C. Black	director, officer: President & CEO	333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Philip Soran	director	12982 VALLEY VIEW RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Kimberly K. Nelson	officer: EVP & CFO	2800 MOUNT RIDGE ROAD, ROSEVILLE MN 55113
Sven Wehrwein	director
Chadwick Collins	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
James J. Frome	officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer	333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
James Burr Ramsey	director	C/O NETSUITE INC, 2955 CAMPUS DRIVE SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Anne Sempowski Ward	director	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Martin J Leestma	director	333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Michael A Smerklo	director	C/O SERVICESOURCE INTERNATIONAL, INC., 634 SECOND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Michael J Mcconnell	director	P.O. BOX 6280, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92658
Melvin L Keating	director	18 DRIFTWOOD DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Tami Reller	director	C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399
Spencer George H. Iii	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SEYEN CAPITAL, 150 NORTH WACKER DR., SUITE 660, CHICAGO IL 60606