What is Theriva Biologics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Theriva Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Theriva Biologics (Theriva Biologics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9605 Medical Center Drive, Suite 270, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850
Theriva Biologics Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company developing a novel oncolytic adenovirus (OV) platform to address devastating cancers with high unmet needs. It is a lead clinical-stage program VCN-01, designed to break down the tumor stroma, and its preclinical-stage program VCN-11, leverages its proprietary Albumin Shield Technology to protect systemically administered oncolytic viruses from the host immune system.
Executives
| Steven A Shallcross |
director, officer: CEO and CFO |
C/O ELYS GAME TECHNOLOGY CORP., 130 ADELAIDE STREET WEST, SUITE 701, TORONTO A6 M5H2K4 |
| Francis Tufaro |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
9605 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE SUITE 270, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| John J Monahan |
director |
|
| Scott Tarriff |
director |
28 TUDOR ROSE TERRACE, MAHWAH NJ 07430 |
| Randal J Kirk |
10 percent owner |
1881 GROVE AVENUE, RADFORD VA 24141 |
| Joseph A. Sliman |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
9605 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 270, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Jeffrey Scott Riley |
director |
C/O ADEONA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 3930 VARSITY DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| Intrexon Corp |
10 percent owner |
20374 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Charles Evan Ballantyne |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
27 HEARTHSTONE ROAD, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| Nelson K. Stacks |
director |
C/O ADEONA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 3985 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| Lyon Lyman Max Jr |
director, officer: CEO & President |
C/O ADEONA PHARMACEUTICALS, 3930 VARSITY DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| David A. Newsome |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
3930 VARSITY DRIVE, C/O PIPEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| James S Kuo |
director |
509 MADISON AVE 14TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Daniel J Dorman |
director |
|
| Wayne George Holman |
10 percent owner |
430 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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