Tuesday Morning (Tuesday Morning) Predictability Rank

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What is Tuesday Morning Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tuesday Morning Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tuesday Morning (Tuesday Morning) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Tuesday Morning Corp (OTCPK:TUEMQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6250 LBJ Freeway, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240

Website

https://www.tuesdaymorning.com

Tuesday Morning Corp is a retail chain company. It specializes in both domestic and international closeouts of medium to high-end name brand gifts, luxury home textiles, home furnishings, housewares and seasonal decor.

Executives

Osmium Partners, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Zhong John Zhang	director	6250 LBJ FWY, DALLAS TX 75240
Andrew Berger	director	84 ELM STREET, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Michael Onghai	director	122 WEST 26TH ST. 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
James Harris	director	10 FARADAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Maya Burkenroad	director	C/O WILHELMINA INTERNATIONAL, INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Sandip Patel	director	1010 N. FLORIDA AVE., TAMPA FL 33602
Clicks To Bricks, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1680 MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 700, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Tm21, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1010 N. FLORIDA AVE., TAMPA FL 33602
Ayon Capital, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1010 N. FLORIDA AVE., TAMPA FL 33602
Tascr Ventures, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1010 NORTH FLORIDA AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33602
Alexander Mehr	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O ZOOSK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Retail Ecommerce Ventures Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	1680 MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 700, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Tai Lopez	director, 10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O WILHELMINA INTERNATIONAL, INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Marcelo Podesta	director	6250 LBJ FREEWAY, DALLAS TX 75240