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Union Electric Co (Union Electric Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Union Electric Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Union Electric Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Union Electric Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Union Electric Co (Union Electric Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Union Electric Co (OTCPK:UELMO.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RSERF EUSP BLXX SUME WNDW MGFCF FKRNF CRIUF AZRE SPKE TREAY AZZBF KEN FPHHF AESAY TRPWF COELF EDN HFSUF CPXWF
Traded in Other Exchanges
UEPEP.PFD:USA UEPEO.PFD:USA UEPEN.PFD:USA UEPEM.PFD:USA UEPCP.PFD:USA UEPCO.PFD:USA UEPCN.PFD:USA
Address
1901 Chouteau Avenue, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63103
Website
https://www.ameren.com
Union Electric Co is engaged in providing regulated electricity to the business and residential.
Executives
Chonda J Nwamu officer: SVP & Deputy General Counsel 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Fadi M Diya officer: SVP & CNO 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166
Bruce A Steinke officer: SVP, Finance & CAO 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166
Michael L Moehn officer: Senior Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Gregory L Nelson officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Charles D Naslund officer: Sr Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Adam C Heflin officer: Sr. Vice Pres. of Subsidiary 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P. O. BOX 66149, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Timothy E Herrmann officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Richard J Mark officer: Senior Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Dennis W Weisenborn officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Scott A Cisel officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVE, MC 1370, ST LOUIS MO 63103
Mark C Birk officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVE MC-1310, ST LOUIS MO 63103
Harvey Saligman director
Douglas R Oberhelman director 100 NE ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Richard A Liddy director

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