U.S. Gold (U.S. Gold) Predictability Rank

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What is U.S. Gold Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

U.S. Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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U.S. Gold (U.S. Gold) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » U.S. Gold Corp (NAS:USAU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DTUR:Germany DTUR:Germany

Address

1910 East Idaho Street, Suite 102-Box 604, Elko, NV, USA, 89801

Website

https://www.usgoldcorp.gold

U.S. Gold Corp is an exploration and development company that owns certain mining leases and other mineral rights comprising the CK Gold Project in Wyoming, the Keystone Project in Nevada, and the Challis Gold Project in Idaho.

Executives

Ryan K Zinke	director	409 W 2ND STREET, WHITEFISH MT 59932
Luke Anthony Norman	director	1910 E. IDAHO STREET, SUITE 102-BOX 604, ELKO NV 89801
George M Bee	officer: President	30 OLD MILL ROAD, SUITE 806, ETOBICOKE A6 M8X 0A5
Robert W Schafer	director	C/O U.S. GOLD CORP., 1910 EAST IDAHO STREET, SUITE 102-BOX 60, ELKO NV 89801
Michael N Waldkirch	director	C/O U.S. GOLD CORP., 1910 EAST IDAHO STREET, SUITE 102-BOX 60, ELKO NV 89801
Kevin A. Francis	officer: VP - Exploration	553 SAGE CIRCLE, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80126
Eric Alexander	officer: CFO, Secretary	1658 COLE BLVD., BLDG. 6, SUITE 210, LAKEWOOD CO 80401
Tara Gilfillan	director	C/O U.S. GOLD CORP., 1910 EAST IDAHO STREET, SUITE 102-BOX 60, ELKO NV 89801
Ted Riley Sharp	officer: Chief Financial Officer	714 WHISPERWOOD COURT, NAMPA ID 83686
Edward M Karr	director	RAMPARTNERS, 19 BLVD GEORGES-FAVON, GENEVA V8 1204
Douglas J Newby	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 1010, NEW YORK NY 10271
David C. Mathewson	officer: Vice President of Exploration	1265 MESA DRIVE, FERNLEY NV 89408
David Rector	officer: COO U.S. Gold Corp.
Robert J Delaversano	officer: Principal Financial Officer	217 W. MAIN STREET, SOMERVILLE NJ 08876
Andrew J Kaplan	director	SUITE 200 623 RIVER ROAD, FAIR HAVEN NJ 07704