What is Village Farms International Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Village Farms International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Village Farms International (Village Farms International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4700 - 80th Street, Delta, BC, CAN, V4K 3N3
Village Farms International Inc owns and operates intensive agricultural greenhouse facilities in British Columbia and Texas, where it produces, markets and sells tomatoes, bell peppers and cucumbers. Its wholly owned subsidiary, Pure Sunfarms, is a vertically integrated licensed producer and supplier of cannabis products sold to other licensed providers and provincial governments across Canada and internationally. The Company's wholly owned subsidiary, Balanced Health, develops and sells, cannabidiol (CBD) based products including ingestible, edible and topical applications. Through its 70% ownership of Rose, the Company has a presence in the Province of Quebec as a cannabis supplier, producer and commercialization.
Executives
| Kathleen M Mahoney |
director |
C/O SPARTANNASH, 850 76TH SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49518 |
| Michael A Degiglio |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
10 ALVIN CT, EAST BRUNSWICK NJ 08816 |
| John Patrick Henry |
director |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 195 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, SUITE 100, HEATHROW FL 32746 |
| Stephen C Ruffini |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 195 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, SUITE 100, HEATHROW FL 32746 |
| Ann Lefever Gillin |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4700 80TH STREET, DELTA A1 V4K 3N3 |
| John R. Mclernon |
director |
200 GRANVILLE STREET, 19TH FLOOR, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 2R6 |
| Christopher C. Woodward |
director |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 195 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, SUITE 100, HEATHROW FL 32746 |
| David Holewinski |
director |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, INC., 195 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, SUITE 100, HEATHROW FL 32746 |
| Roberta Cook |
director |
C/O VILLAGE FARMS INTERNATIONAL, 195 INTERNATIONAL PARKWAY, SUITE 100, HEATHROW FL 32746 |
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