What is Verizon Communications Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Verizon Communications Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Verizon Communications (Verizon Communications) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1095 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Verizon Communications is primarily a wireless business (it provides about 70% of service revenue and nearly all operating income). It serves about 92 million postpaid and 22 million prepaid phone customers (following the acquisition of Tracfone) via its nationwide network, making it the largest U.S. wireless carrier. Fixed-line telecom operations include local networks in the Northeast, which reach about 25 million homes and businesses and serve about 8 million broadband customers. Verizon also provides telecom services nationwide to enterprise customers, often using a mixture of its own and other carriers' networks.
Executives
| Craig L. Silliman |
officer: EVP of PubPolicy & Gen Counsel |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Samantha Hammock |
officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Joseph J. Russo |
officer: EVP&Pres-Global Networks&Tech |
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC., 1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Mary-lee Stillwell |
officer: SVP and Controller |
804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Kyle Malady |
officer: EVP & Chief Technology Officer |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Vittorio Colao |
director |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Vandana Venkatesh |
officer: EVP and General Counsel |
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC., 1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Sowmyanarayan Sampath |
officer: EVP and Group CEO-VZ Business |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Tami A. Erwin |
officer: EVP and Group CEO-VZ Business |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Hans Erik Vestberg |
director, officer: Chairman and CEO |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Manon Brouillette |
officer: EVP and Group CEO-VZ Consumer |
40 AVENUE SPRINGGROVE, MONTREAL Z4 H3C 4M8 |
| Carol B Tome |
director |
55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| Kumara Guru Gowrappan |
officer: EVP and Group CEO-VZ Media |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Laxman Narasimhan |
director |
PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
| Shellye L Archambeau |
director |
1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
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