Western Digital (Western Digital) Predictability Rank

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What is Western Digital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Western Digital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Western Digital (Western Digital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Western Digital Corp (NAS:WDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WDC:Mexico 1WDC:Italy WDC:Germany WDC:Germany WDC:Germany WDC:Austria

Address

5601 Great Oaks Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95119

Website

https://www.wdc.com

Western Digital is a leading vertically integrated supplier of data storage solutions, spanning both hard disk drives and solid-state drives. In the HDD market it forms a practical duopoly with Seagate, and it is the largest global producer of NAND flash chips for SSDs in a joint venture with competitor Kioxia.

Executives

Robert Soderbery	officer: EVP & GM, Flash Business	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Gene M. Zamiska	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Reed B Rayman	director	6775 LENOX CENTER COURT, SUITE 400, MEMPHIS TN 38115
David Goeckeler	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Wissam G Jabre	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Paula A Price	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Miyuki Suzuki	director	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Thomas Caulfield	director	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Lori S Sundberg	officer: EVP & Chief Human Res Officer	400 NORTH FIFTH STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Michael Charles Ray	officer: Sr. VP, Gen Cnsl & Secretary	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Sean Hunkler	officer: EVP, Global Operations	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Michael D Cordano	officer: President, HGST Subsidiary	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Stephen D Milligan	officer: Sr. V.P. & CFO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Matthew E Massengill	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Robert K Eulau	officer: EVP & CFO	5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119