What is The Alkaline Water Co Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
The Alkaline Water Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
The Alkaline Water Co (The Alkaline Water Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8541 E. Anderson Drive, Suite 100, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85255
Alkaline Water Co Inc is engaged in the business of distributing and marketing bottled alkaline water for retail consumers of different sizes. The firm sells its product in 500ml, 700ml, 1-liter, 1.5-liter 3-liter, and 1-gallon sizes. Its only operating geographical segment being the United States of America. The company sells its product to convenience stores, natural food products stores, large ethnic markets, and national retailers.
Executives
| David Guarino |
director, officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
19039 N. 90TH LANE, PEORIA AZ 85382 |
| Brian Sudano |
director |
11 WOODWAY LANE, WILTON CT 06897 |
| David Eric Rauch |
director |
16767 N PERIMETER DRIVE, SUITE 320, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Frank Thomas Chessman |
officer: CEO and President |
347 SOUTH SILVERBROOK DRIVE, ANAHEIM CA 92807 |
| Frank Lazaran |
director |
6809 LAHONTAN DRIVE, FORTH WORTH TX 76132 |
| Ronald V Davella |
director |
2600 E SOUTHLAKE BLVD., STE 120-359, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092 |
| Aaron Keay |
other: Former Director |
7325 BLENHEIM STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6N 1S2 |
| Richard A Wright |
director, officer: President, VP, CEO and COO |
1826 E. LAKECREST DRIVE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85234 |
| Bruce Thomas Leitch |
director |
109 1141 W7TH AVE, VANCOUVER BC A1 999999999 |
| Lifewater Industries, Llc |
10 percent owner |
14301 NORTH 87 STREET, SUITE 301, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Win Investments, Llc |
10 percent owner |
14301 NORTH 87 STREET SUITE 301, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
| Steven Paul Nickolas |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President CEO Chairman |
14301 N. 87TH ST. STE 301, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260 |
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