X4 Pharmaceuticals (X4 Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is X4 Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

X4 Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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X4 Pharmaceuticals (X4 Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:XFOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

48Q:Germany

Address

61 North Beacon Street, 4th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02134

Website

https://www.x4pharma.com

X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company engaged in the research and development of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases and those with limited treatment options, with a focus on conditions resulting from dysfunction of the immune system. The Company's lead clinical candidate is mavorixafor, a small molecule antagonist of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 that is being developed as an oral, once-daily therapy. It has the ability to increase the mobilization of mature, functional white blood cells from the bone marrow into the bloodstream.

Executives

Paula Ragan	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O X4 PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 955 MASSACHUSETTS AVE., 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mark Baldry	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Arthur Taveras	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O X4 PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 61 NORTH BEACON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02134
Mary Dibiase	officer: Chief Operating Officer	61 NORTH BEACON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02134
Adam S. Mostafa	officer: See Remarks	C/O X4 PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 61 NORTH BEACON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02134
Keith Woods	director	C/O X4 PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 61 NORTH BEACON STREET 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02134
Michael S Wyzga	director	RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Christophe Arbet-engels	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MILLENDO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 110 MILLER AVENUE, SUITE 100, ANN ARBOR MI 48104
Murray Stewart	director	C/O NOVELION THERAPEUTICS INC., 1800-510 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B OM3
Craecker Francoise De	director	61 NORTH BEACON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02134
Derek M Meisner	officer: General Counsel	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Diego Cadavid	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O FULCRUM THERAPEUTICS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Alison Frances Lawton	director	39 ROBINSON ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02420
Renato Skerlj	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O X4 PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 955 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIGE MA 02139
William Aliski	director	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949