What is Yellow Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Yellow Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Yellow (Yellow) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
501 Commerce Street, Suite 1120, Nashville, TN, USA, 37203
Yellow Corp is engaged in offering transportation services. It has a comprehensive less-than-truckload (LTL) networks in North America with local, regional, national, and international capabilities. The company offers expertise in LTL shipments and flexible supply chain solutions, ensuring customers ship industrial, commercial and retail goods. Its revenue is primarily derived from transporting LTL shipments in the United States and it also offers other services such as truckload services, customer-specific logistics solutions, and other services.
Executives
| Mary Nell Browning |
director |
2200 WILLOWICK ROAD, APT. 15C, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Thomas A. Knott |
director |
103 GRACE HILL ROAD, NEWBURY NH 03255 |
| Daniel L. Olivier |
officer: Interim CFO |
10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211 |
| Mfn Partners, Lp |
10 percent owner |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Farhad Nanji |
10 percent owner |
C/O HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Mfn Partners Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Michael Demichele |
10 percent owner |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Mfn Partners Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Mfn Partners Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| David H. Webber |
director |
11500 OUTLOOK STREET, SUITE 400, OVERLAND PARK KS 66224 |
| James E. Hoffman |
director |
325 INNES WAY, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52403 |
| Annlea Rumfola |
officer: Chief Information Officer |
501 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1120, NASHVILLE TN 37203 |
| Shaunna D. Jones |
director |
10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211 |
| James R. Faught |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211 |
| Javier L. Evans |
director |
400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901 |
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