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Carnival (NYSE:CCL) Altman Z-Score

: 0.71 (As of Today)
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The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.

Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of 0.71 is in distress zone. This implies bankruptcy possibility in the next two years.

Carnival has a Altman Z-Score of 0.71, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for Carnival's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CCL' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.05   Med: 2.39   Max: 2.96
Current: 0.71

During the past 13 years, Carnival's highest Altman Z-Score was 2.96. The lowest was 0.05. And the median was 2.39.


Carnival Altman Z-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Carnival's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Carnival Annual Data
Trend Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19 Nov20 Nov21 Nov22 Nov23
Altman Z-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.28 0.38 - 0.05 0.70

Carnival Quarterly Data
Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.05 0.16 0.27 0.57 0.70

Competitive Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Carnival's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Carnival Altman Z-Score Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Carnival's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Carnival's Altman Z-Score falls into.



Carnival Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

Carnival's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*-0.1265+1.4*0.0038+3.3*0.0408+0.6*0.471+1.0*0.4396
=0.71

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Nov. 2023:
Total Assets was $49,120 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $5,266 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $11,481 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $185 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was -39 + 1065 + -402 + -686 = $-62 Mil.
Interest Expense was -466 + -518 + -542 + -539 = $-2,065 Mil.
Revenue was 5396 + 6854 + 4911 + 4433 = $21,594 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was $19,895 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $42,237 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(5266 - 11481)/49120
=-0.1265

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=185/49120
=0.0038

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(-62 - -2065)/49120
=0.0408

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=19894.564/42237
=0.471

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=21594/49120
=0.4396

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

Carnival has a Altman Z-Score of 0.71 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


Carnival  (NYSE:CCL) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


Carnival Altman Z-Score Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Carnival's Altman Z-Score provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Carnival (NYSE:CCL) Business Description

Address
3655 N.W. 87th Avenue, Miami, FL, USA, 33178-2428
Carnival is the largest global cruise company, with 92 ships in service at the end of fiscal 2023. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; and P&O Cruises in Australia. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival's brands attracted nearly 13 million guests in 2019, prior to COVID-19, a level it has reached again in 2023.
Executives
David Bernstein officer: Sr. Vice President & CFO 3655 NW 87TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33178
Randall J Weisenburger director C/O WASSERSTEIN PERELLA GROUP, 31 WEST 52ND ST 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bettina Alejandra Deynes officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 92 SW 3RD STREET, UNIT 4812, MIAMI FL 33130
Bessemer Trust Co Of Delaware, N.a. 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks 20 MONTCHANIN ROAD, SUITE 1500, WILMINGTON DE 19807
Sara Mathew director CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
William Richard Burke officer: Chief Maritime Officer 6301 COLLINS AVENUE, APT. 1903, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141
Joshua Ian Weinstein director, officer: President & CEO 3273 COACOOCHEE STREET, MIAMI FL 33133
Arnold W Donald director C/O CARNIVAL CORPORATION, 3655 N.W. 87TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33178
Enrique Miguez officer: General Counsel 3600 DURANGO STREET, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Arnaldo Perez officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec. 3655 NW 87TH AVE, C/O CARNIVAL CORP, MIAMI FL 33178-2428
Peter C. Anderson officer: Chief Ethics & Compliance 1541 BRICKELL AVENUE, UNIT B-2604, MIAMI FL 33129
Ma 1994 B Shares Lp other: See Remarks 1201 NORTH MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19899-1347
Micky Meir Arison director, officer: Chairman & CEO C/O PAUL BERKOWITZ GREENBERG TRAURIG, 333 S.E. 2ND AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131
Richard Glasier director 219 PIASA ST, ALTON IL 62002
Jeffrey J Gearhart director 702 SOUTHWEST 8TH STREET, BENTONVILLE AR 72716-0215