Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) could face a decline of nearly 6% in its data center revenue if capital expenditures pull back across key markets, according to a note from Piper Sandler released on Monday.
Analyst Harsh Kumar outlined a “worst-case” scenario in which approximately 6.45% of Nvidia's data center income, or around $9.8 billion annually, could be vulnerable if customer spending slows and Chinese business fails to rebound.
Kumar estimated that under such pressure, Nvidia shares could fall to $76.25, assuming the stock trades at 25 times earnings. In a more optimistic case, using the same multiple, shares could be worth as much as $126.
Despite outlining potential downside risks, Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on the stock and reiterated a $150 price target, citing confidence in the company's long-term AI and data infrastructure positioning.
The comments come as investors grow more sensitive to signals around enterprise IT spending amid macro uncertainty, especially in China, a key market for the chipmaker.
