Deckers Outdoor (DECK, Financial) just posted a quarter that beat expectations—yet the stock tanked 18.6% at 1.13pm, marking its biggest single-day drop since 2012. Why? Investors zeroed in on the company's weak outlook. Management guided Q1 revenue between $890 million and $910 million, below the $925 million midpoint analysts were looking for. Earnings guidance also came in light, with projected EPS between $0.62 and $0.67, missing the $0.79 consensus. CFO Steven Fasching pointed to global trade tensions and softer consumer spending, saying the company would “absorb a portion of the tariff impact.” Macro clouds are clearly making visibility tougher.
That said, the fundamentals weren't all doom and gloom. Deckers actually beat expectations for fiscal 2025. Ugg posted 4% revenue growth—far better than the double-digit decline the market had braced for—and Hoka sales rose 10%, in line with projections. But momentum is cooling. KeyBanc downgraded the stock, flagging a “clear deceleration” in Hoka's growth. Jefferies, still holding a neutral stance, noted that as Nike ramps up wholesale distribution and reclaims mindshare through Amazon, Hoka could lose ground. Meanwhile, Seaport Research held its Neutral rating but acknowledged the surprise strength in recent results despite an uncertain macro backdrop.
Here's where it gets interesting for long-term investors: At around $101, Deckers now trades well below its 12-month average target of $161.44—a potential upside of nearly 60%, according to 20 analyst estimates. GuruFocus pins its GF Value at $138.25, suggesting a +36.7% return from here. The chart shows a steep drawdown, but we may be entering a support zone where dip buyers tend to step in. If sentiment shifts or the macro picture stabilizes, this selloff could set the stage for a rebound. For those hunting value in retail, this may be one worth tracking closely.
