July 2 - J.P. Morgan (JPM, Financial) warns Tesla (TSLA, Financial) shares could slide more than 60%, as the EV maker's recent political distractions and soft sales weigh on demand.
Tesla stock fell about 5% Tuesday, extending a year‑to‑date decline of over 25%.
Analyst Ryan Brinkman cites “material risks” to delivery forecasts after Q1's 13% year‑on‑year drop, which channel checks suggest may deepen to a 19% fall in Q2. He now expects deliveries of 360,000 vehicles, below the 392,000 consensus.
Brinkman trimmed his Q2 EPS estimate to $0.42 from $0.48, and cut full‑year guidance to $1.75 from $2.07, both under Wall Street's respective forecasts of $0.45 and $1.87.
The analyst retained his Underweight rating with a $115 price target, implying roughly a 62% downside over the next 12 months. By contrast, the Street's average target of $291 still suggests a modest overvaluation of about 3%, with a consensus Hold rating.
Brinkman points to waning federal subsidies and a challenging macro environment as headwinds, even as Musk prepares to unveil a lower‑cost model.
Investors will be watching Tesla's Q2 delivery report closely for signs of a sustained recovery.
