May be 4th Q and 1st Q negative and there's your recession. You always find out after it happens and the market is always a little ahead. Looking like a deep the next 3-6 weeks and then more normalized and trending up the second half of the year.
This may go down as the most talked about, anticipated recession in history......which will also make it less severe. You get knocked out by the punch you don't see coming....not the one you've talked about for 18 months.
That's my story and I'm putting my money where my mouth is.