Hedge fund manager John Paulson is most likely to be the next billionaire who will sign Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ “Giving Pledge.”
That’s what the people behind the odds-making and gambling Web site Bookmaker.com determined.
Bookmaker recently ran a list of 19 billionaires, including many guru hedge fund investors tracked on this site, and allowed people to bet on which one was most likely to next sign the pledge.
The team at Bookmaker.com came up with the idea and calculated the odds for each billionaire by analyzing media reports and expert opinions being published lately on the topic, according to a spokeswoman for the site.
Paulson topped the odds list with an 11.8 percent chance of signing. He was followed by fellow billionaire investors Carl Icahn and George Soros, at 11.1 percent and 10.5 percent respectively.
Buffett and Gates have publicly challenged billionaires to give away the majority of their wealth to charity, as they themselves have done. Each person who agrees to it pledges the gift publicly and submits a letter explaining his or her decision. It’s not a legal contract but is a moral commitment.
So far 40 families or individuals—including Buffett, Gates, Larry Ellison, Barron Hilton, George Lucas, Michael Bloomberg, Barry Diller, Ted Turner, T. Boone Pickens and Paul Allen—have signed on.
The information was up on the Bookmaker site for about two weeks, during which gamblers could place their bets. Their bets did not affect the odds.
The odds have now been taken down from the site, but the spokeswoman sent them to me. Here are the 19 names in order of the perceived likelihood of a massive charitable gift. We’ll see if they end up being predictive.
That’s what the people behind the odds-making and gambling Web site Bookmaker.com determined.
Bookmaker recently ran a list of 19 billionaires, including many guru hedge fund investors tracked on this site, and allowed people to bet on which one was most likely to next sign the pledge.
The team at Bookmaker.com came up with the idea and calculated the odds for each billionaire by analyzing media reports and expert opinions being published lately on the topic, according to a spokeswoman for the site.
Paulson topped the odds list with an 11.8 percent chance of signing. He was followed by fellow billionaire investors Carl Icahn and George Soros, at 11.1 percent and 10.5 percent respectively.
Buffett and Gates have publicly challenged billionaires to give away the majority of their wealth to charity, as they themselves have done. Each person who agrees to it pledges the gift publicly and submits a letter explaining his or her decision. It’s not a legal contract but is a moral commitment.
So far 40 families or individuals—including Buffett, Gates, Larry Ellison, Barron Hilton, George Lucas, Michael Bloomberg, Barry Diller, Ted Turner, T. Boone Pickens and Paul Allen—have signed on.
The information was up on the Bookmaker site for about two weeks, during which gamblers could place their bets. Their bets did not affect the odds.
The odds have now been taken down from the site, but the spokeswoman sent them to me. Here are the 19 names in order of the perceived likelihood of a massive charitable gift. We’ll see if they end up being predictive.
| JOHN PAULSON | 11.8 percent |
| CARL ICAHN | 11.1 percent |
| GEORGE SOROS | 10.5 percent |
| PETER THIEL | 9.1 percent |
| MARC LASRY | 9.1 percent |
| STEVE MANDEL JR | 8.3 percent |
| KEN GRIFFIN | 8.3 percent |
| DANIEL OCH | 8.3 percent |
| PHIL FALCONE | 8 percent |
| STEVE COHEN | 7.9 percent |
| STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN | 7.8 percent |
| LOUIS BACON JR | 7.7 percent |
| ALAN HOWARD | 7 percent |
| EDDIE LAMPERT | 7 percent |
| ROBERT BASS | 6.75 percent |
| RAY DALIO | 6.5 percent |
| PAUL TUDOR JONES II | 6 percent |
| DAVID TEPPER | 5.9 percent |
| BRUCE KOVNER | 1 percent |
