Garmin Stock Analysis Part I
Garmin
Business Overview and Valuation
Garmin Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets global positioning system (GPS) enabled products and other navigation, communication, and information products worldwide. It operates in four segments: Automotive/Mobile, Outdoor/Fitness, Marine, and Aviation.
The automotive/mobile sector brings in the largest amount of the company’s revenue making up 69.7%. Outdoor/fitness, Aviation, and Marine make up 15.9%, 6.0%, and 8.4% of the company’s revenue respectively.
The Outdoor/fitness segment mostly consists of Personal network devices (PNDS) that are used for navigation in cars. Sometimes, Garmin sells the GPS devices for use in high end automobiles to the car manufacturer directly, and to customers who want a detachable device. Company also produces navigation devices for motorcycles, Garmin is constantly coming up with new and updated GPS systems and aggressively expanding its presence overseas.
The company is the worldwide leader in GPS technology. There is no data available on market share by segment, but Garmin holds 36% of the global GPS market share, followed by TomTom. TomTom a UK based GPS maker, is Garmin’s largest competitor and holds 45% of the European market share, and 24% of the North American market share.
Below are some valuation metrics of the company:
According to almost all these metrics (with the exception of P/B) the company is very undervalued. I will state what I believe the intrinsic value towards the end of the article. However, there are aspects of the company that I believe is causing the market to severely underestimate the true value of the company which must be examined first.
Most analysts are obsessed with the spread of smart phones and the possible negative effect it will have on Garmin’s profitability in the automotive/outdoor sector. This is the main reason why I believe the stock is so mispriced by the market. The bears argue that the smart phones are a threat to the automotive/outdoor segment which is the largest chunk of Garmin’s revenues.
However, these analysts neglect the fact that the three other divisions have even higher profit margins than the automotive sector, and that Garmin dominates these areas.
There has been reasonable organic growth in the three industries over the past several years.
As can be seen from the chart above, while the extremely impressive revenue increases have come from the automotive sector, the three other segments have produced satisfactory growth. Outdoor/fitness has grown by 250%, Marine has increased by 30%, Aviation 12% (excluding 2009 the number would be 44%).
The main growth has come from the automotive sector, but the marine and aviation sectors have had decent growth, and the outdoor sector has demonstrated phenomenal growth.
Data from the latest quarterly filling reveal that this growth has continued. Outdoor, Aviation, and Marine revenue have increased 28%, 9%, and 12% respectively.
Garmin’s main revenues come from Europe, and North America. However, the company is starting to make inroads into Asia. Revenue was up 54% YOY.
Part II is here
http://www.valuewalk.com/
Garmin
| Key Statistics | |
| Market Cap (millions) | $ 5,410.00 |
| Current Price | $ 27.82 |
| Shares outstanding (millions) | 194.60 |
Business Overview and Valuation
Garmin Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets global positioning system (GPS) enabled products and other navigation, communication, and information products worldwide. It operates in four segments: Automotive/Mobile, Outdoor/Fitness, Marine, and Aviation.
The automotive/mobile sector brings in the largest amount of the company’s revenue making up 69.7%. Outdoor/fitness, Aviation, and Marine make up 15.9%, 6.0%, and 8.4% of the company’s revenue respectively.
The Outdoor/fitness segment mostly consists of Personal network devices (PNDS) that are used for navigation in cars. Sometimes, Garmin sells the GPS devices for use in high end automobiles to the car manufacturer directly, and to customers who want a detachable device. Company also produces navigation devices for motorcycles, Garmin is constantly coming up with new and updated GPS systems and aggressively expanding its presence overseas.
The company is the worldwide leader in GPS technology. There is no data available on market share by segment, but Garmin holds 36% of the global GPS market share, followed by TomTom. TomTom a UK based GPS maker, is Garmin’s largest competitor and holds 45% of the European market share, and 24% of the North American market share.
Below are some valuation metrics of the company:
| Valuation Ratios | |
| P/E (TTM) | 8.4 |
| EV/ EBIT | 5.18 |
| EV/S (TTM) | 1.4 |
| P/BV (MRQ) | 2.0 |
| EV / OCF(ttm) | 4.6 |
| EV / FCF (ttm) | 4.9 |
| P/CF (TTM) | 5.9 |
| P/FCF (TTM) | 6.2 |
| EV / EBITDA (TTM) | 4.6 |
| Dividend Yield | 5.4% |
| Piotroski (TTM) | 8 |
| Altman (MRQ) | 6.28 |
According to almost all these metrics (with the exception of P/B) the company is very undervalued. I will state what I believe the intrinsic value towards the end of the article. However, there are aspects of the company that I believe is causing the market to severely underestimate the true value of the company which must be examined first.
Most analysts are obsessed with the spread of smart phones and the possible negative effect it will have on Garmin’s profitability in the automotive/outdoor sector. This is the main reason why I believe the stock is so mispriced by the market. The bears argue that the smart phones are a threat to the automotive/outdoor segment which is the largest chunk of Garmin’s revenues.
However, these analysts neglect the fact that the three other divisions have even higher profit margins than the automotive sector, and that Garmin dominates these areas.
| 52-weeks ended December 26, 2009 | 52-weeks ended December 27, 2008 | Year over Year | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Profit | % of Revenues | Gross Profit | % of Revenues | $ Change | % Change | ||||||||||||||||||
| Outdoor/Fitness | $ | 306,842 | 65.4 | % | $ | 246,746 | 57.7 | % | $ | 60,096 | 24.4 | % | |||||||||||
| Marine | 105,215 | 59.2 | % | 111,425 | 54.5 | % | (6,210 | ) | -5.6 | % | |||||||||||||
| Automotive/Mobile | 861,900 | 42.0 | % | 977,595 | 38.5 | % | (115,695 | ) | -11.8 | % | |||||||||||||
| Aviation | 170,154 | 69.2 | % | 217,749 | 67.3 | % | (47,595 | ) | -21.9 | % | |||||||||||||
There has been reasonable organic growth in the three industries over the past several years.
| Year | Segment | ||||
| Outdoor/Fitness | Marine | Automotive/Mobile | Aviation | Total | |
| 2009 | 306,842 | 105,215 | 861,900 | 170,154 | 1,444,111 |
| 2008 | 246,746 | 111,425 | 977,595 | 217,749 | 1,553,515 |
| 2007 | 184,655 | 110,169 | 973,205 | 195,226 | 1,463,355 |
| 2006 | 163,638 | 92,952 | 475,191 | 150,605 | 882,386 |
| 2005 | 124,791 | 80,951 | 177,638 | 151,690 | 535,070 |
As can be seen from the chart above, while the extremely impressive revenue increases have come from the automotive sector, the three other segments have produced satisfactory growth. Outdoor/fitness has grown by 250%, Marine has increased by 30%, Aviation 12% (excluding 2009 the number would be 44%).
The main growth has come from the automotive sector, but the marine and aviation sectors have had decent growth, and the outdoor sector has demonstrated phenomenal growth.
Data from the latest quarterly filling reveal that this growth has continued. Outdoor, Aviation, and Marine revenue have increased 28%, 9%, and 12% respectively.
Garmin’s main revenues come from Europe, and North America. However, the company is starting to make inroads into Asia. Revenue was up 54% YOY.
Part II is here
http://www.valuewalk.com/
