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Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky
Articles  | Author's Website |

Garmin Stock Analysis Part II

September 13, 2010 | About:

Garmin Stock Analysis Part II. You can see Part I here

Outdoor/Fitness $ 157,325 64.2 % $ 121,639 64.7 % $ 35,686 29.3 %
Marine 73,338 63.4 % 58,658 59.7 % 14,680 25.0 %
Automotive/Mobile 300,110 44.9 % 279,258 40.1 % 20,852 7.5 %
Aviation 91,788 70.1 % 88,054 71.4 % 3,734 4.2 %
Total $ 622,561 53.7 % $ 547,609 49.5 % $ 74,952 13.7 %


The analysts also neglect to realize that despite the massive growth of smart phones, Garmin has continued to be a dominate player in PND market. Blackberries, Iphones and other devices have become very popular over the past few years and yet from 2008 to 2009, Garmin’s market share of the GPS market has rose from 34 to 36%. Garmin’s gross margin of 52.3% in 2009 is actually higher than gross margins were in 2006. This demonstrates that the company has not lost its edge despite the large growth in smart phones over that time frame. This trend is likely to continue in the future. The reason for the growth of the PND sector is the fact that most people will not use their phone to navigate while they drive (they highly prefer a PND). Below are two charts showing the complete lack of correlation between Garmin’s revenues, and the use of smart phones.

Year Sales Op Inc Net Inc EPS OCF Cap-Ex FCF DPS Shares
2000 $ 345.74 $ 129.29 $ 105.66 $ 0.53 $ 88.32 $ (24.82) $ 63.50 $ 0.15 199.36
2001 $ 369.12 $ 131.29 $ 113.45 $ 0.53 $ 129.99 $ (14.88) $ 115.11 $ - 214.05
2002 $ 465.14 $ 177.44 $ 142.80 $ 0.66 $ 175.41 $ (12.42) $ 162.98 $ - 216.36
2003 $ 572.99 $ 227.00 $ 178.63 $ 0.82 $ 175.18 $ (32.77) $ 142.41 $ 0.25 217.85
2004 $ 762.55 $ 270.67 $ 205.70 $ 0.95 $ 208.94 $ (78.15) $ 130.79 $ 0.25 216.53
2005 $ 1,027.77 $ 338.17 $ 311.22 $ 1.43 $ 247.01 $ (27.13) $ 219.88 $ 0.25 217.64
2006 $ 1,774.00 $ 554.56 $ 514.12 $ 2.35 $ 361.86 $ (96.02) $ 265.83 $ 0.50 218.78
2007 $ 3,180.32 $ 907.35 $ 855.01 $ 3.89 $ 682.09 $ (159.70) $ 522.39 $ 0.75 219.80
2008 $ 3,494.08 $ 862.02 $ 732.85 $ 3.48 $ 862.16 $ (126.59) $ 735.57 $ 0.72 210.59
2009 $ 2,946.44 $ 786.01 $ 703.95 $ 3.50 $ 1,094.46 $ (56.77) $ 1,037.68 $ 0.75 201.13


smartphone-chart.gif


After reviewing the overreaction of the analysts it is important to realize that Garmin is no cigar butt stock. I am very conservative with valuation metrics, but Garmin clearly dominates its industry. This should cause the stock to demand a higher multiple than other companies. Below are some statics comparing Garmin’s to competitors:


GRMN Industry Average Industry Percentile
Gross Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 55.55% 28.12% 95th
Gross Margin (TTM) 52.53% 27.60% 93rd
EBITD Margin (TTM) 29.04% 10.54% 98th
Profit Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 18.50% 4.19% 98th
Operating Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 27.72% 7.44% 98th
Operating Margin (TTM) 27.14% 6.12% 98th
Pretax Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 22.56% 5.83% 98th
Pretax Margin (TTM) 25.29% 2.97% 98th


The after tax margins (which are not shown in the above chart) are also quite impressive. Garmin has a much lower tax rate. The effective tax rate for the past several quarters has been approximately 19%, compared to the US corporate tax rate of 18%.



I normally do not use DCF as a measurement of a stock’s intrinsic value; however using DCF with Garmin shows how cheap the stock is. I used a FCF growth rate of 3% for the next ten years, followed by a terminal rate of 2%. The discount rate used was 12%. The calculation reveals that assuming minimal growth over the next ten years Garmin’s fair value is $53.60. This provides the stock with a 29% margin of safety based on today’s price of 27.82. This is an extremely conservative estimate. Under every scenario shown below the stock is undervalued.

10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
Growth Rates -1% $ 50.27 $ 47.37 $ 44.77 $ 42.44 $ 40.33
1% $ 55.25 $ 51.92 $ 48.94 $ 46.27 $ 43.86
3% $ 60.84 $ 57.01 $ 50.54 $ 47.79
5% $ 67.10 $ 62.72 $ 58.81 $ 55.31 $ 52.17
7% $ 74.12 $ 69.10 $ 64.63 $ 60.63 $ 57.05


Using a reverse DCF shows the current stock price to assume approximately a negative 13% growth over the next ten years. This is highly unlikely, and it demonstrates the huge mispricing of Garmin by the market.

Discount Rates
10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
Growth Rates -17% $ 25.36 $ 24.47 $ 23.65 $ 22.91 $ 22.23
-15% $ 27.30 $ 26.27 $ 25.34 $ 24.48 $ 23.70
-13% $ 29.46 $ 28.28 $ 26.23 $ 25.33
-11% $ 31.89 $ 30.52 $ 29.29 $ 28.17 $ 27.14
-9% $ 34.60 $ 33.03 $ 31.61 $ 30.32 $ 29.15


Growth:

Some of the growth aspects were discussed above. However, some expansion is necessary. One very positive aspect of the company’s growth is the fact that it is mostly organic. From time to time the company will make small acquisitions, however Garmin mostly relies on itself to produce growth. This is a very important aspect that I look for in all companies.

FCF in the past has grown at a phenomenal rate in the past.

Cash Flows
Free Cash Flow
5 yr FCF Growth 54.0%
10 yr FCF Growth 30.3%


In the DCF calculation used above I assumed scenarios of both negative growth, and low growth. However, if Garmin grows as it did in the past the stock can easily be worth many times the current share price. It is highly unlikely that Garmin will be able to grow at these rates in the future.

Analysts are predicting 5% EPS growth per annum over the next five years. If Garmin is able to achieve this lowball figure using DCF the company is worth $58.81.

Management:

Management operates in a shareholder friendly manner. Insiders hold 54% of the company’s stock. In a microcap company this might not be a big deal, but for a company with a market cap of over $5 billion this is a staggering figure.

Cash is used mostly for share buybacks and dividends. The annual dividend was just increased from $0.75 to $1.50. This gives the stock a dividend yield of 5.4%. Management has bought back many shares in the past several years (total shares have decreased by approximately 12% since 2007), and announced another $300 million buyback in February of this year.

In addition, management produced a 25% return on equity over the past year. This occurred during the worst recession in 70 years. This number demonstrates that management is running the company very well.

Financial Strength



Garmin has a very strong balance sheet. The company has zero long term debt, and plenty of cash. With over a billion dollars in cash, approximately 20% of the company’s market cap consists of cash. Garmin has a quick ratio of 4.1, and a current ratio of 5. In addition, the company does not require a lot of cash to operate. This allows the company to deploy cash for strategic acquisitions, share buybacks, and dividends (as discussed above). OCF was $1.1 billion in 2009 and CapEx was only $50MM. Garmin does not need to spend a lot on CapEx to produce high OCF and this means the company runs on a cheap, and efficient basis.

Moat

It is hard to determine the exact nature of the moat of the company, however there definitely is somewhat of a moat present. Below is some data to support this fact:

Returns

GRMN Industry Average Industry Percentile
Return on Sales (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 18.50% 4.19% 98th
Return on Sales (TTM) 22.19% 2.50% 98th
Return on Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 20.34% 11.69% 79th
Return on Equity (TTM) 25.12% 6.48% 83rd
Return on Assets (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 15.72% 3.75% 92nd
Return on Assets (TTM) 18.59% 2.61% 98th
Return on Investment (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized) 20.27% 5.79% 91st
Return on Investment (TTM) 25.03% 3.92% 94th






The numbers here are quite impressive. The return on assets number is what I consider the most important. A company that is able to earn such a high ROA demonstrates that it has a moat. If it did not, competitors would come in and drive down the number towards an average return. For the past 5 years Garmin has averaged an ROA of 23%.

What gives Garmin its moat? It surely is not captive customers. It is relatively easy to switch to another GPS provider such as TomTom. I consider captive customers to be one of the most important types of moats. However, the company being the largest GPS manufacturer in the world benefits from economies of scale. This lowers the average cost per unit through increased production since fixed costs are shared over an increased number of goods. In addition, the company has over 400 patents and 250 trademark registrations.

Finally, I look at my check list of several factors to determine whether Garmin is a good buy.

Valuation- Extremely undervalued assuming no growth, based on numerous valuation metrics

Growth- the Company seems poised to generate moderate to high growth in the future

Management- Management seems shareholder friendly with constant share buybacks, and dividend increases. Management has a huge state in the company.

Financial Strength- the Company has no long term debt, a quick ratio of 4.1, and a current ratio of 5.

Moat- The Company’s high returns on assets demonstrate the company has at least a weak moat. This is likely due to economies of scale, and patents on priopitery technology

The stock is a buy. The intrinsic value is approximately $45.5 per share using a TTM EPS of $3.50 with a conservative multiple of 13. There are a lot of valuation metrics that could be used to place the company at an even higher price, but P/E TTM is one of the metrics I utilize the most.

There are risks associated with Garmin. My main concerns are listed below:

Satellite technology for GPS devices is provided by the US military for free. Garmin has no contract with the Department of Defense and this arrangement could change any day. In such a scenario Garmin would have to find someone else (likely at a high price) to provide the company with satellite imagery, since the company has no expertise in the area.

Mobile phones equipped with GPS could threaten revenue in the automotive/outdoor, and fitness division (as discussed at length above).

Currency- the Company operates in different countries, and in different currencies. Garmin does not hedge its currency exposure, and any massive swings in exchange rates could hurt profitability.

Garmin has a very low tax rate since it is incorporated outside the US. There is a possibility that regardless of this fact Garmin will be required to pay US corporate tax rates (which are almost double the current rate the company pays).

Revenue is for the most part not recurring.

Any further decline in the consumer spending will obviously hurt the company.

Disclosure: Long Garmin

About the author:

Jacob Wolinsky
My investment ideas have been inspired by many of value investors including Benjamin Graham, Charles Royce, John Neff, Joel Greenblatt, Peter Lynch, Seth Klarman,Martin Whitman and Bruce Greenwald. .I live with my wife and daughter in Monsey, NY. I can be contacted jacobwolinsky(AT)gmail.com and my blog is www.valuewalk.com

Visit Jacob Wolinsky's Website


Rating: 3.9/5 (15 votes)

Comments

halis
Halis - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
I have been looking at Garmin for several years now and I have failed to pull the trigger due to worries about smart phones. I was originally interested in them after purchasing a Garmin GPS. I personally love my Garmin and would rather use it than my phone to navigate.

I'm still worried about the long-term strategy for the company and their ability to grow the top-line. Perhaps the top-line is only down due to the recession. It would make sense considering GPS devices are somewhat of a discretionary item. It's tough though, I know people that use their phone as a GPS.

I will definitely be taking another look at the stock though. Management owning that much of the common is intriguing. Well done.
tkervin
Tkervin - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
I have to agree with Halis that this analysis was very well done. Of course I can see a growth trajectory that would mimic a Palm or a Netscape or an AOL or any other early tech leader. The market is indeed pricing Garmin for negative growth. I tend to agree. I see Gateway written all over this company. Warren Buffett does not invest in the Garmin's of the world for exactly this reason. Certainly I could be wrong and Garmin could adapt and continue to prosper. Could Gamin be an investment success?......you bet. But I won't.......:-)
tonysf
Tonysf - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
Just like to point out couple things:

1) PE is a bit lower than 8.44, as you mentioned. Probably some where between 6 to 7, since there is a $6 per share of cash with zero debt (and AR > AP).

2) I would think the FCF will decease in the next few years as gross margin should reduce due to sales price deterioration.
tonysf
Tonysf - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
Thanks for sharing your ideas and providing detail analyses.
yswolinsky
Yswolinsky - 8 years ago    Report SPAM
Thanks for all the comments and compliments. Competition from smart phones does scare me somewhat which I mentioned under the risks section. Only time will tell if I am right so far Garmin is beating the market since my purchase. only time will tell what the future holds for the company.

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