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Bill Miller Again Proving He is No Buffett

October 20, 2010
Bill Miller was on CNBC this morning. The link below takes you to it.

Now Mr. Miller had a great track record prior to 2008, beating the S&P 500 for a record number of years. He was somewhat taken down a peg or to as he looked lost buying Bear Stearns and homebuilders exactly when he shouldn't have been. There is difference between buying undervalued companies and just buying stocks that have fallen in price. He was clearly just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian in many cases.

Don't get me wrong. I think he is a smart guy. But I cringed again today when he was willing to offer up a prediction of what the stock market will do over the next 1 year. He said up up at least 20%.

I have to ask, at this point in time after 25 years of investing how has he not figured out that making predictions on stock market moves is a fool's errand. You will hear Buffett say at certain times that he thinks stocks are cheap or expensive, but you will NEVER hear him say where the stock market is going to be over a one or two year time period.

Pick your gurus carefully. In my opinion you can start with Buffett and really don't need to add much from there.


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